In recent years the Polar Stratosphere has become a major talking topic when it comes to predicting winter weather for us here in the UK, I only really began to take notice of this during last winter and over the summer I’ve been studying and reading up on it to improve my knowledge and hopefully make my seasonal forecasts more accurate. I should add that I am very much a novice when it comes to Stratosphere temperatures and I’m by no means claiming to be an expert.
The Polar Stratosphere has recently seen some warming at a 30MB level.
Whilst this in itself is unlikely to lead to very much, this combined with the current Tropical Stratosphere begins to show something rather interesting, the Tropical Stratosphere is currently well below average
It’s the cold Tropical Stratosphere that I believe is causing our recent strange Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, the lower temperature differential between the tropics and the polar regions is helping to limit the strength of the Polar Vortex which would usually be strengthening at this time of year. Currently, there is no sign that the Polar Vortex will begin to strengthen and become more organised and the Jet Stream forecasts reflect this by showing the Jet Stream diving South of the UK
The Northern Hemisphere GFS Blocking Anomaly charts also indicate that instead of having Low Pressure developing around the Polar Regions, we’re going to continue to see High Pressure in charge for the foreseeable future and if anything, is currently forecasted to strengthen.
If you like cold, snowy weather this is definitely an encouraging sign. There are currently signs of further Polar Stratospheric warmings in around 10 days time, if this does indeed happen then I think we could be looking at our first potential cold and snowy spell sometime from the middle of November onwards, of course, this really does depend on how things develop over the next couple of weeks.