Stratosphere Temperature Update

October 15, 2012

Weather Forecasts


In recent years the Polar Stratosphere has become a major talking topic when it comes to predicting winter weather for us here in the UK, I only really began to take notice of this during last winter and over the summer I’ve been studying and reading up on it to improve my knowledge and hopefully make my seasonal forecasts more accurate. I should add that I am very much a novice when it comes to Stratosphere temperatures and I’m by no means claiming to be an expert.

The Polar Stratosphere has recently seen some warming  at a 30MB level.

Whilst this in itself is unlikely to lead to very much, this combined with the current Tropical Stratosphere begins to show something rather interesting, the Tropical Stratosphere is currently well below average

It’s the cold Tropical Stratosphere that I believe is causing our recent strange Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, the lower temperature differential between the tropics and the polar regions is helping to limit the strength of the Polar Vortex which would usually be strengthening at this time of year. Currently, there is no sign that the Polar Vortex will begin to strengthen and become more organised and the Jet Stream forecasts reflect this by showing the Jet Stream diving South of the UK

The Northern Hemisphere GFS Blocking Anomaly charts also indicate that instead of having Low Pressure developing around the Polar Regions, we’re going to continue to see High Pressure in charge for the foreseeable future and if anything, is currently forecasted to strengthen.

If you like cold, snowy weather this is definitely an encouraging sign. There are currently signs of further Polar Stratospheric warmings in around 10 days time, if this does indeed happen then I think we could be looking at our first potential cold and snowy spell sometime from the middle of November onwards, of course, this really does depend on how things develop over the next couple of weeks.

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3 Comments on “Stratosphere Temperature Update”

  1. Guy Says:

    Thanks Daniel, very encouraging indeed. Fingers crossed for snow in November then!

    Reply

  2. michael haydon Says:

    Although not being a pessimist, & being a bird watcher, which I know cold winters are a killer for small Passerines sysch as Wrens & Robins etc. This country needs to experiance what its like to work live and play, through a 1963 type winter where snow drifts in kent and Sussex reached 9feet or more. No front wheel drive vehicles about in those days apart from early Minis, Morris 1100’s and a lot of early European cars, had front wheel drive. People still trudged to work, every driver, milk salesman, Taxi’s had snow chains attached for almost 2 months. Bus services & Train sevices unfortunetly were moslty ground to a halt. Overhead Electric power lines for power source is fine, if Theres cable warming or other devices to stop freezing of components. Normal Diesal engined Buses are quite useless trying to climb a reasonable gradient on a slow climb, they overheat, rear wheels just spin, and like I saw in my home town, 4 Southdown buses had to rescued by Breakers trucks. I had to do a paper round every morning on my vespa Scooter, come snow or rain. paper rounds were’t cancelled because of a foot of snow, sometimes I had to walk the round, and leave scooter at a main road, that was passable.
    It will take a severe winter to get cosy government ministers of there sorry asses to actually start putting into place the same type of cold weather eqiupment in Nordic countries to deal with airport, & other transport systems. My friend who lives just south of Edmonton, in Northen Canada, had enough snow fall the other day, to make things a little difficult. Although early snow is not rare in Canada, She said, it was slighty unusual for the 12th October.

    On another note, Im surprised no ones put a Storm warning out today, as the North West coast, is just now experiencing storm force winds coming off the irish Sea which I estimate to be around at least 55mph, with squally gusts with the rain of probably 60mph. Im hoping to buy a new weather station, from Maplin, that after setting up the outside devices, connects to the USB connection on you PC. I have not determined, if this to connect too software that will just convert the signals recieved into readable data, to show on my screen, or its connected to a network site, which collects data from my station.

    Reply

  3. michael haydon Says:

    Oh! forgot to add, The majority of Schools in that winter, were not closed, was unheard off, only if not enough teachers got into work, were we sent home.
    If the heating was a bit iffy, and classroooms chilly, we were told to make sure our parents gave us extra Jumpers and socks, shoes, while we were at school. Only structural damage or flooding closed any schools in 63. The only time I remember being sent home Early, was by 2pm one afternoon, its was snowing so heavy outside, that you couldnt even see across the playground, because of the ice and it would be getting dark by 4pm, we all got told we could go home early, Wooot!!!
    Dont forget schools in 1963, didnt finish until 4pm, not like today, where I see schools finishing at just past 3pm.

    Reply

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