Warmer, then first taste of winter?

October 17, 2012

Weather Forecasts


I mentioned in my monthly outlook that things were looking somewhat uncertain in the medium term with the chance of some warmer weather along with the chance of some much cooler weather. The models have been firming up slightly over the last couple of days and it now looks like we’re going to see a period of warmer weather as High Pressure begins to develop to the East of the United Kingdom during the first half of next week.

This will bring in some warmer air up from the near continent in the form of light Southerly winds with temperatures responding nicely getting up into the high teens, perhaps a localised 20c being recorded too. Despite the warmer air it’s unlikely to be completely dry with low pressure never to far away from the North and West bringing the potential for showery spells of rain here.

It’s from the middle of next week onwards really that things start to become increasingly uncertain as the models begin to diverge more. Some models are wanting to build quite an extensive area of high pressure across the Atlantic and indeed Greenland whilst at the same time bringing an area of Low Pressure into the Svalbard and Scandinavia region, this will begin to push cold air further Southwards and towards the UK.

GFS Model

The ECM also favours cold air moving towards the UK however the development is much slower and slightly different to that of the GFS model.

Interestingly enough the NOAA at the moment are siding with the GFS more than the ECM at the moment, as the chart below illustrates with the placement of high pressure over Greenland stretching down into the Atlantic.

If we take a quick look at the GFS ensembles suite, we can see the large divergence in the later forecasting period but it’s encouraging to see other GFS Perturbations following a similar path to the above GFS charts.

Forecast Summary 

Through the course of the weekend and the first part of next week a ridge of high pressure developing to the East of England will bring in warmer air across the country, the risk of rain will remain for some particularly across the North and West where low pressure will never be too far away. Into the second part of the week confidence in the forecast drops away significantly but there is the potential for some much colder weather to come down from the North, how this evolves, how cold and whether they’ll be a risk of some snowfall is far too early to tell, an update on this will be published at the weekend when hopefully things will be a little clearer.

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3 Comments on “Warmer, then first taste of winter?”

  1. Brad Says:

    Thanks for the update! very clear and detailed, hope that snow pushes down from Norway.

    Reply

  2. Ray Tooley Says:

    I don’t mind WHERE the snow “pushes from”…as long as it GETS HERE this Winter!!!

    Reply

  3. brounosgr Says:

    I’ve just moved to Scotland, from London. I’ll be very disappointed if I don’t see any of the white stuff- particularly because Scotland probably gets the most snow in the UK. I live near Loch Lomond and the peaks look majestic when they’re snow capped.

    Reply

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