The model updates early this morning and again this afternoon have begun to downgrade the cold spell potential, having said that for the time of year it’s still going to be impressive with some widespread frosts.

The change begins through Thursday overnight into Friday as a cold front pushes Southwards across the country. Not only will this introduce some much colder air but it’ll also clear the low cloud, mist and murk Southwards bringing plenty of cool autumnal sunshine.

UKMO FAX Chart showing the placement of pressure systems and weather fronts
London GFS Ensembles showing the marked drop in temperature as the cold front pushes through

The cold air will remain with us through the course of the weekend with some wintry showers across higher ground in the North and East, I think we probably will see a few of these down to lower levels too in the North during any heavier showers. Further South it’ll be largely dry and bright with widespread overnight frosts. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty as to where we go from here, I think initially we could see High Pressure toppling over the UK keeping things dry, cold and settled for a time but there are increasing signals that as we move into early November things will begin to turn increasingly unsettled but perhaps remaining cold for the time of year.

As always, I’ll keep you updated.

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