Cold Spell Update 2

October 23, 2012

Weather Forecasts


The models have been busy updating again overnight and through today and we’re starting to get a much clearer idea of how this cold spell is likely to develop now, where we go from there on in is still very much up for grabs, though.

Through Thursday overnight into Friday a cold front will push Southwards bringing much colder air in behind, all this mist, murk and low cloud will clear along with it so with the cold it will be turning much brighter with plenty of sunshine to be had. Wintry showers will begin to effect Scotland and North-East England during the day, initially I think over higher ground but even down to lower levels later in the day, we could see some wintry showers down Eastern Coastal areas too but I think these will consist mostly of rain, sleet and hail rather than snow. Further South plenty of sunshine around with a widespread sharp overnight frost expected on Friday night.

Beyond into next week it looks like it’ll remain generally quite cold but details are very uncertain, there are two possible outcomes.

The first one being low pressure pushes down from Iceland whilst high pressure backs away Westwards along a Low Pressure system over Iceland to push down across the country, this will bring increasingly unsettled conditions to the United Kingdom as we move into the first week of November with temperatures remaining below average. This I think is the most likely outcome at this stage.

The second possibility is that high pressure manages to deflect the area of low pressure near Iceland slightly Eastwards keeping it out in the North Sea. This would would keep the cold weather over us along with bringing further potential wintry weather to Northern and Eastern areas. This is quite a new idea within the models with little support at the moment but cannot be ruled out.

Lots to keep an eye on over the coming days and indeed into next week, if you’re hoping for milder weather I’m afraid there isn’t a strong signal for this on any of the models at the moment.

GFS model showing the cold air across the United Kingdom at 850hPa by Friday evening

As ever, I’ll keep you updated.

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