Storm Event Update

October 30, 2012

Weather Forecasts

I mentioned the possibility of some severe weather across Southern areas of the UK for Friday as a deepening secondary low pressure system pushes across Southern England bringing the potential for gale force winds and heavy rain. There’s still a lot of uncertainty within the models over the tracking of this system.

The GFS has remained consistent with bringing the low across Southern parts of England with the strongest winds being on its Southern flank, whilst the UKMO & ECM keep the system further North and show the system to be a lot weaker than on the GFS model.

GFS showing the Low Pressure system pushing across Southern England

ECM doesn’t show the system developing at all

So forecasting this one at the moment is quite difficult, in my experience the GFS is often closest with the tracking although often over estimates the severity of low pressure systems. I think many Southern parts of England will see a period of wet and windy weather through the course of Friday but perhaps not quite as severe as the GFS depicts.

If the GFS does prove to be correct at this stage, though. Southern coastal areas and South-East England could see gusts up to 70mph, these gusts perhaps possible across inland areas in the South-East too which really would cause a problem. Further updates to come in the next few days.

GFS model showing maximum wind gust strength



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