Cold Potential Second Half of November

November 4, 2012

Weather Forecasts


I’ve been looking at the various different computer models today and I believe I may have spotted something which could bring the potential of colder, snowier weather towards the end of the month.

The GFS, UKMO and ECM all show signs of a developing area of High Pressure across Scandinavia and this could bring the potential for colder Easterly winds later in the month.

GFS Model

ECM Model

UKMO Model

At the same time, we’re going to see the AO become positive as high pressure over Greenland begins to weaken and subside. We’re also going to see an increase towards Neutral in the NAO.

 

Ordinarily this would indicate that we’re moving towards a period of milder Atlantic type weather. However through October we saw an explosive increase in snowfall across Russia, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe and some suggest this leads to an increased risk of blocking. The feedback from this surface cold air across Scandinavia and Russia will be High Pressure developing around and over these areas.

This doesn’t necessarily mean we’re going to see cold weather, if the high pressure develops to far South we’ll see nothing but milder Southerly winds. But if it develops across Scandi like the models are starting to hint at, the end of November has the potential to be quite cold and snowy.

Further updates to follow.

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