Been a few days since my last post so I thought I’d give an update on how things are looking at the moment for the end of the month.

During the last few days things really had backed off from the cold potential with models pointing towards perhaps Atlantic Zonal weather through into December, in the last few runs though we have seen perhaps a change back towards colder conditions at the end of the month. The ECM model in particular is keen to develop a Scandinavian High, the details at this stage are as ever likely to change with each and every run but the trend towards a Scandinavian high is definitely evident.

ECM Model

The GFS model shows quite a different pictures however, whilst it does develop high pressure to our East it’s not quite as organised, the GFS also puts more power into the Northern arm of the Jet Stream and this stops high pressure from really moving into Scandinavia.

GFS Model

There’s still a lot of uncertainty about this and this by no means guarantees colder weather, but the trend and potential is there nonetheless and something that will need to be monitored in the next couple of weeks.

The Polar Stratosphere has cooled fairly dramatically recently although there are some subtle hints that we could see some Wave Breaking activity leading to warming, December is on a knife balance at the moment in my opinion. If we see the warming taking place we could see any blocking that may develop late in November continue into December, if not, I think any cold spell that does develop could well be short lived before Atlantic weather rolls back in across the UK.