Cold Weather Update 2

November 12, 2012

Weather Forecasts


Been a few days since my last post so I thought I’d give an update on how things are looking at the moment for the end of the month.

During the last few days things really had backed off from the cold potential with models pointing towards perhaps Atlantic Zonal weather through into December, in the last few runs though we have seen perhaps a change back towards colder conditions at the end of the month. The ECM model in particular is keen to develop a Scandinavian High, the details at this stage are as ever likely to change with each and every run but the trend towards a Scandinavian high is definitely evident.

ECM Model

The GFS model shows quite a different pictures however, whilst it does develop high pressure to our East it’s not quite as organised, the GFS also puts more power into the Northern arm of the Jet Stream and this stops high pressure from really moving into Scandinavia.

GFS Model

There’s still a lot of uncertainty about this and this by no means guarantees colder weather, but the trend and potential is there nonetheless and something that will need to be monitored in the next couple of weeks.

The Polar Stratosphere has cooled fairly dramatically recently although there are some subtle hints that we could see some Wave Breaking activity leading to warming, December is on a knife balance at the moment in my opinion. If we see the warming taking place we could see any blocking that may develop late in November continue into December, if not, I think any cold spell that does develop could well be short lived before Atlantic weather rolls back in across the UK.

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11 Comments on “Cold Weather Update 2”

  1. Ray Tooley Says:

    There’s an old weather saying that could prove true,and although I can’t remember the exact words verbatim,I know that it’s very close to this,and it will definitely convey the same meaning as the original,so here goes: “If November ice should bear a duck,the rest shall be but slush and muck”!
    In other words,if the weather in November gets cold enough to form ice on,let’s say,a pond or lake and it’s thick enough to support a duck’s weight,then the rest of the ensuing Winter is most likely going to be slushy,i.e,.not cold enough for any sustained periods of snowy weather,being more indicative of snow quickly turning to rain,and just generally “dreary” weather.(Dull,dank,drizzly and erring to the mild side.)

    Reply

    • Jack Keegan Says:

      Well I don’t hold too much faith in the GFS models, Since they upgraded to GFS2 modeling someone will loose their job (or at least they should) over that disgrace of a so called upgrade with only 4 modeling runs (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) to generate a forecast.
      So it holds less sway with me than the Donegal post man, at least that poor man makes his predictions based on how spiders build their webs, berries on trees etc. and i don’t hold much praise for him either. But he did forecast the snow we had a couple of weeks ago.

      Anyway I’m getting away from the point I think the JAMSTEC models are one of the most reliable and consistant model outputs for the time being at least and IF they are correct we are going to freeze this winter.

      So i say buy your snow boots and crampons now as it looks to me like we are setting up nicely for a possible 1 in 50 year weather event, which would give us 1 to 3 feet of snow cover widely accross the country with drifting over 12 feet.

      Now I am the first one to say i hope i’m wrong and i’m talking out of my rear end and I truly hope you will all have a good laugh at this post come the spring but if the models are correct and i’m reading them correctly we are in trouble and on a much more serious note, if it does come to pass there may be a great loss of life among the elderly and infirm and the foolhardy who think they can beat the elements in a pair of shoes, jeans and a jacket (You Won’t).

      On a Much Lighter Note just love this site “Probably the Best” on the web (Well if it’s good enough for Carlsberg it’s good enough for me).

      Keep Up the Good Work Lads

      Reply

  2. michael haydon Says:

    The daily Express as always, has launched its latest “BIG FREEZE” Warning due near end of Month on Today’s front Page, we due for -15C, snow, and dramatic Cold Weather which will be have a big impact on Everyone!

    On another matter, I Inspected the latest weather station At Maplin’s store, that connects wirelessly to a USB, probably some time of dongle! I wonder If I will get the Instruments outside assembled before I am covered in 6 inches of snow :XD

    Reply

  3. Jack Keegan Says:

    I Would strongly recommend the Maplin weather station at £59.99 (on promotion) its fantastic value and remarkably accurate, robust and with the free ware program Cumulus you can publish your local weather straight to the web check out http://irelandsweather.com/ for an idea on the outputs from these stations some are pro setups but quite a lot are Maplin machines and spair parts are cheep and readly available from Maplins I would rate mine as being 10/10 for its price and function and the one we fitted to our yacht has saved our bacon more than once as it has multiple audio weather alarm functions (wind, rain, pressure, humidity, temp.) also holds about 1 weeks worth of data depending on data sample rate you select so when you hook up your pc you’ve got reliable history data to work on

    Hope you join in the at home weather station community soon

    JK

    Reply

  4. Jack Keegan Says:

    Hi Daniel

    just thinking if you have lots of spair cash you could go Pro with a Davis machine for about £1,200

    http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/electronic/davis-vantage-pro2-plus-weather-station

    In my opinion it’s total overkill for someone starting out as it does nothing the Maplin machine couldn’t do with the addition of a solar power / UV level sensor for about £35 unless you need wireless connections to 1Km or more I would put it on the wish list for Santa next year LOL

    I would just like to make it absolutely clear (I DO NOT WORK FOR OR REPRESENT ANY OF THESE COMPANYS IN ANY WAY WHAT SO EVER)

    I just spent a lot of time researching these machines as we really needed a reliably weather station for the yacht and didn’t want to spend £2,000+ on a marine weather station if we could help it so we opted for 2 stations at £60 each 1 in use and the other sealed in a water tight bag which is always ready for instant deployment should the need arise 1 year on it’s as good and accurate as the day we bought it and after 8,000 miles at sea i’d say it’s prity robust to boot

    I strongly recommend If your thinking about getting a weather station shop around for better prices and get to know what’s out there and who makes them, as many are rebranded at grossly inflated prices.
    A good rule of thumb “if it looks the same as the cheaper one it most likely is a rebrand”

    Start with a low cost full function version because without proper placement of the instruments and that can be a tall order in more ways than one and at not inconsiderable cost plus you may need planning approval from your local authority for full UKMO approval.
    So in my opinion going Pro it’s about as usefull as a chocolate tea pot in July if your location can not meet UKMO standards and i think there are very few of us that want to spend £1,200 + on a tea pot only to discover the data you’ll acquire is no better than a £60 starter station

    Hope you find the above usefull if not a bit long winded (pardon the punn)

    JK

    Reply

  5. michael haydon Says:

    Hi jack, and Danial, many thanks for the information, The Maplin Weather station did start off at about £119, which, even then seeing the screen shots of the data windows , that looked very detailed, along with the Alarm like wind speed, I thought it reasonable then, at £59.99 you cant really get better value.

    The only trouble I have , is I have no garden, I am on ground floor council flat, one with ramps, cos I have an Arthritic Hip. The council wont let me put anything on the wall outside , I am pretty sure,so, My only option its to make a small flat bracket underneath the UPVC fascia panel attached under our main front window and just make the Support pole as small as possible so it cant be seen to be unobtrusive. Although it will be almost on top of window, I’m not to bothered about rain gauge, but mainly Wind speed, dew points,low and high temperatures, inside and outside and barometric pressure. Fortunately that faces a really open space, towards a very large lake and forest, so the instruments are not closed in, but really open to anything thrown at it. Being Wireless will certainly help as well, and its will be high enough to stop stupid kids from playing with it. On the weather front today, its going to be warmish +14%C, at this time of year, I don’t like these temperatures, from years of experience, just watching trends, its usually followed by a cold spell. Even the record breaking Winter of 63, I believe the Christmas period started out by being damp and mild.

    I never did found out how that bad winter started, and how it was triggered, leaving the country with almost 3 months of huge snow drifts, Ice in the sea In Eastbourne, icicles so big they measured 1 meter in length, where Fire crews had to come knock them down. At 14 years of age, made the only Igloo this side of the north pole:) me and some lads took ages making it, Our teacher showed us how to make candle lights, and even pigments to paint inside, you could get about three of us in it! Almost every other day though January to early February of 63 it snowed almost constantly, on and off, What I remember most,of those seventies winters was gathering around the old lamp posts of those days, playing carols with the Sallie army, on my 2nd Cornet (no puns please :P)

    Talking about technology, My first “Hydrometer” ? was made out of a box, with a clocks hand, with one strand of my hair, its stayed in our garden in one winter in the seventies and actually worked, after a fashion.:) saw some interesting Utube videos yesterday, of US cars trying to negotiate small hills, after an ice storm, one after the other, just slid into each other, some guys hanging on to there open drivers door, outside, trying to slow car down, 10 cars all slid into each other, breaking a few rear Fenders each, bet some, had stiff necks in the morning!

    ,Regards Michael

    Reply

  6. Jack Keegan Says:

    Congratulations Daniel

    Very well done i’m Delighted for you, Years of obsessive fun ahead LOL. Did you go for the Maplin or Davis station or something else !!!

    Hi Michael

    Wasn’t around for the 63 event but I do remember the 70’s event there is a relly good photo of me aged about 12 sitting on top of a 14 foot telephone pole with my dad which was almost totally covered by a 13 foot snow drift happy days indeed. We had food, milk and bread delivered by an airforce helicopter every week for a month as we were snowed in and there was no way to get to the nearest village about 4 miles away. Dads car was under a 22 foot drift of the bloody stuff. But it was fun being able to walk out of my upstairs bedroom window to play in it.

    Anyway This might be of intrest to both of you The Temp/Humidity sensor is the wireless transmitter on that unit and will transmit at least 70 feet to the receiver station through a concrete wall (well my one does)

    The wind speed and dierction sensors connect together via. an RJ11 Telephone Plug.

    The Rain gauge is a stand alone unit.

    Now both of these units connect separately to the transmitter via Telephone cables terminated with RJ11 plug.
    They can Very Easily be extended via. a RJ11 to RJ11 telephone adaptor socket and a telephone extension lead terminated at both ends with RJ11 Plugs

    Now the exact max length of the extension cable that can be added I can not say but I have a 10m extension cable connected to each sensor and the system works just fine

    (You MUST water proof any connection you add, this is easily done with a small plastic electrical coffin box and a small amount of silicon sealer)

    (an RJ11 plug is NOT the white BT Flat wall Connector type but the clear plastic small square type RJ11)

    The software to display and publish the data on your pc and to the web can be very expensive equal to the price of the unit at least. So I would recommend the freeware program “Cumulus”
    it may not look as glam and glitz but it does every single thing you would ever want your station to do. I think it’s Fantastic.

    I would suggest you use The latest version available. The Maplin unit is a Fine Offset (WH1080 etc)

    http://sandaysoft.com/products/cumulus

    Hope that sheads a bit of light on the subject

    JK

    Reply

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