The latest computer models have started to once again trend away from the potential of a cold end to the month and at this moment in time there is no clear signal either way for the end of November/Early December. Below I’ve posted the latest 06z & 12z GFS Ensembles.

GFS 06z Ensembles
12z GFS Ensembles

I want you to pay attention to the area highlighted in the yellow box particularly, you’ll notice that the ensemble members are spread out quite largely with no real correlation between either of them, this suggests that at the moment there is no clear trend to any particular weather type.

This suggests there is very low confidence in the forecast and it really could turn out mild or cold. Given this, i’d currently give a lowered risk of a significant cold outbreak later in the month.

It’s worth mentioning that the further out in the forecast period you go, the more unreliable these computer models become. Background teleconnective signals do currently favour high pressure development over Greenland at the end of November/Early December but whether this brings cold weather to the United Kingdom is yet to be seen.

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