Weather Forecasters

November 16, 2012

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In the last couple of days I’ve noticed that a lot of so called forecasters have begun warning about a severe cold winter as if its an absolute certainty.

I’d just like to write a quick message to warn you against these types of so called forecasters, who claim to be able to forecast with absolute certainty and give specific details beyond a 2 week period. Forecasting this way simply is not possible by the world leading organisations let alone someone with limited access to model data.

Instead, pay closer attention to those forecasters who show their workings, give reasons behind their weather forecasts and back up what they’re saying with some data, if they’re unable to do this then chances are they are simply forecasting what they want to happen, rather than actually basing their forecasts on anything remotely scientific.

There’s no harm in questioning someones forecast either – A good forecaster will ALWAYS be able to tell you the reasoning and method used to end up with the forecast created.

There’s no harm of course in reading forecasts from these types of people, Madden, Piers Corbyn, Mark Vogan etc.. however it’s probably best not to take anything they say too seriously, particularly when it comes to long range forecasting. In fact, I’d warn against take my long range forecasts too seriously too, the weather is very chaotic and can change very quickly, whilst its possible to get the overall pattern forecasted, it’s 100% NOT possible to forecast the specifics, I.E, snowfall, rain, wind, etc..

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9 Comments on “Weather Forecasters”

  1. Ray Tooley Says:

    It will snow..I KNOW it will,’coz if it doesn’t,I’m going to “sthamp my feet and tear up paper,and thqweem and thqweem until I’m thick”!!!

    Reply

  2. gavomatic57 Says:

    I’ve noticed that Madden (well, Exactaweather) has started charging for his long-range winter forecasts. He’s also got a personal blog with “new ice age” in the URL. Conflict of interests there methinks.

    Anyway, thanks for your honesty!

    Reply

  3. Michael Spurrier Says:

    Could you include Ireland in your forecasts? Thanks

    Reply

  4. Joel's dad Says:

    I don’t know how these people do it. This blog has always been honest and pretty cock on. Keep up the good work.

    Reply

  5. benmills10 Says:

    Most the cold stories come from the daily express and james madden just dont listen to them and fall into there trap

    Reply

  6. jbsp Says:

    This is a site with a difference. It obvious you don’t try to sensational or even try to make a storm in a tea cup. You honest and try to make it simple to idiots like me to understand all of this weather malarkey. I do check other sites but got to say the way you do it it’s tip top. Carry on the good work and if J Madden reads this watch and learn.

    Reply

  7. michael haydon Says:

    makes a cup of coffee and starts to read again the Front page of last weeks Express, thinking, would rather trust Michael Fish , than these Claims, that bring cheers to Sledge Retailers and misplaced misery to the rest of the traveling public, apart from the kids, praying their school Heating will break down ,so they can all have a day off!

    I don’t get any vibes from any reliable source yet, and my own senses that very cold weather is on our doorstep right now, What a shame for the gas & Electric companies, hoping for a windfall amount of cash. My heating has been off, more than on, so far this Winter. Mind you the Mist or Sea Fog, if you live near coast like I do, tends to make the nights Cold and damp, Like tonight’s weather actually

    Reply

  8. Kate Marshall Says:

    Have you also noticed that when Madden gets it wrong, his forecast has enough “wriggle room” to say he way right?

    Reply

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