In the last couple of days I’ve noticed that a lot of so called forecasters have begun warning about a severe cold winter as if its an absolute certainty.

I’d just like to write a quick message to warn you against these types of so called forecasters, who claim to be able to forecast with absolute certainty and give specific details beyond a 2 week period. Forecasting this way simply is not possible by the world leading organisations let alone someone with limited access to model data.

Instead, pay closer attention to those forecasters who show their workings, give reasons behind their weather forecasts and back up what they’re saying with some data, if they’re unable to do this then chances are they are simply forecasting what they want to happen, rather than actually basing their forecasts on anything remotely scientific.

There’s no harm in questioning someones forecast either – A good forecaster will ALWAYS be able to tell you the reasoning and method used to end up with the forecast created.

There’s no harm of course in reading forecasts from these types of people, Madden, Piers Corbyn, Mark Vogan etc.. however it’s probably best not to take anything they say too seriously, particularly when it comes to long range forecasting. In fact, I’d warn against take my long range forecasts too seriously too, the weather is very chaotic and can change very quickly, whilst its possible to get the overall pattern forecasted, it’s 100% NOT possible to forecast the specifics, I.E, snowfall, rain, wind, etc..

Advertisements