Righto, here we go again.

A couple of days ago I mentioned how things had trended away from a cold spell potential within the models, however. Since that post, the models have begun to show the potential for a cold end to November much more aggressively and at the moment there’s some support for this.

Lets take a look at the GFS Ensembles

GFS 12z Ensembles

As always I want you to pay attention to the highlighted yellow box area. The closer together the lines on the chart are, the more confidence we can have on a particular outcome, whilst there’s still a fair amount of scatter within the ensemble suite there’s definitely a clear trend towards progressively cooler conditions for the end of the month and into early December.

We’re now going to take a look at the ECM 12z Ensemble Suite

The above chart is a little harder to explain but I want you to pay more attention to the grey lines. You’ll notice how towards the right of the chart that these lines lower on the graph quite considerably, this suggests a trend towards colder conditions later in the forecast period which would tend to agree with the above GFS Ensembles.

What does this mean?

Forecasting weather specifics at this stage isn’t possible, however we can now say that there’s a definitely trend towards cooler conditions at the end of the month with a trend for high pressure to the North of the British Isle. I don’t think we’re going to see a widespread snow event just yet, but we’re certainly heading in the right direction.

As ever, I’ll keep you updated.