Cold Weather Update 5

November 17, 2012

Weather Forecasts

Righto, here we go again.

A couple of days ago I mentioned how things had trended away from a cold spell potential within the models, however. Since that post, the models have begun to show the potential for a cold end to November much more aggressively and at the moment there’s some support for this.

Lets take a look at the GFS Ensembles

GFS 12z Ensembles

As always I want you to pay attention to the highlighted yellow box area. The closer together the lines on the chart are, the more confidence we can have on a particular outcome, whilst there’s still a fair amount of scatter within the ensemble suite there’s definitely a clear trend towards progressively cooler conditions for the end of the month and into early December.

We’re now going to take a look at the ECM 12z Ensemble Suite

The above chart is a little harder to explain but I want you to pay more attention to the grey lines. You’ll notice how towards the right of the chart that these lines lower on the graph quite considerably, this suggests a trend towards colder conditions later in the forecast period which would tend to agree with the above GFS Ensembles.

What does this mean?

Forecasting weather specifics at this stage isn’t possible, however we can now say that there’s a definitely trend towards cooler conditions at the end of the month with a trend for high pressure to the North of the British Isle. I don’t think we’re going to see a widespread snow event just yet, but we’re certainly heading in the right direction.

As ever, I’ll keep you updated.

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12 Comments on “Cold Weather Update 5”

  1. Ian Says:

    Had a few light showers folloed by extended period of heavy, then lighter, hailstones here. Also noticeably colder air temperatures
    Lat: 54.969 Long: -9.5486


  2. Roman linley Says:

    Hope you didn’t read the Sunday express


  3. Frost Queen Says:

    Great that you give such frequent updates as models change – keep up the good work!


  4. Jeff Says:

    I love your forecasts, trust yours 100%. Keep on the good work.


  5. Ray Tooley Says:

    I didn’t read the Sunday Express,but I’m now curious as to what it had to say! Can anyone leave a few details of the story,please?


  6. Jack Keegan Says:

    Well I don’t know about the coldest winter in 100 years.
    But the East cost of Ireland is in the grip of one heck of a blow sustained wind 22.8mph gust 32mph Dir 180 S peak rain rate 14.4mm/hr
    Batten down the hatches and keep warm till it blows over 😉


  7. Jack Keegan Says:

    correction gust 35.8mph temp 9c +0.4c/hr


  8. Pete Simons Says:

    thought you said other forecasters couldnt forcast that far ahead other day. obviously they know somat you dont. just cos you cant forecast weather specifics at this stage dont mean the likes of madden and corbyns can’t. you make me laugh ROFL.pete


    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Madden has forecasted an ice age winter since 2009, it has yet to occur. Corbyn comes out with all sorts, 100MPH winds, 3 month freezes, you name it Corbyn has forecasted it. You only need to look at the Daily Express archives to see him being quoted on extreme weather again and again, and again and again it has failed to materialise.

      If you want to buy into those types of forecast then that’s up to you, but forecasting specifics, like they attempt to do months in advanced is not scientifically possible. I also believe Piers Corbyn went through a state of predicting earthquakes, not that truly is ridiculous!


      • Ray Tooley Says:

        I hope – I really DO hope – that the predicted “savage” winter,as per the Daily Express story,does come to fruition! I can just imagine trying to walk out in the freezing cold,with biting winds,blizzards and snow drifts to cover the cars! Oh,yes – please,please…P L E A S E!!!


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