I’ve been focussing on the potential cold spell at the end of the month in the last week or so but I think we should take a look at a developing area of low pressure that could bring some severe weather to parts of the United Kingdom on Thursday.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure to our North-West will bring a period of heavy rainfall across many Western parts of England, Western Scotland and into Wales too, ahead of this frontal system tightening isobars are likely to bring some strong gale force winds too, perhaps even extreme gales to exposed Western coastal areas.

Met Office FAX Chart showing frontal system and tightening isobars for Thursday

Whilst the details are only just becoming clear, gusts in the region of 70-75mph seem likely across South-Western England Northwards into Western Parts of Wales, North-West England and up into Western Scotland coastal regions accompanied by some heavy rainfall this could create some dangerous driving conditions. The strong winds will gradually work Eastwards through the course of the day beginning to affect the Midlands and later Eastern coastal regions of England and Scotland.

Wind Chart for Thursday, red colours highlight the strongest winds

Accompanying the strong winds will of course be heavy rainfall. At this stage the heaviest rainfall looks likely to fall across Western Scotland, Wales and up into Northern parts of the Midlands.

Rainfall totals from this system and combining with rainfall falling through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning could create some flooding problems for some areas, totals in excess of 50mm is likely across parts of Wales with totals closer to 40mm across the Northern Midlands and Western Scotland.

A weather advisory is currently in force for this period of severe weather and is likely to be upgraded to a warning or severe weather warning on Wednesday afternoon when we have more data over the precise tracking of this system. To view the advisory, please click here