Apologies for the lack of updates in the past few days, focus really has been on the high rainfall amounts we’ve been seeing across South-West England.

Recent model outputs have continued to keep things looking cold into early December, but there’s something I’m keeping a very close eye on at the moment which has the potential to ruin the chances of a prolonged cold spell. I’ll move onto that in a minute but firstly I’d like to take a look at the ECM & GFS 8-10 day height anomaly model.

The two models are currently at odds with each other, the ECM wants to bring a more Atlantic based regime across the UK later in the forecast period turning things milder and unsettled, the GFS wants to keep things cold and blocked so a lot of uncertainty in the forecast at the moment.

The ECM Ensemble mean however at T144 is good for blocking and cold air heading South across the UK, its beyond this timeframe that things become uncertain.

ECM Ensemble Mean

The 12z GFS Ensembles continue to go for a colder outlook too, further out in the forecast period we see an increasing amount of scatter which means there’s a lot more uncertainty, but overall as we go through next week it looks like it’ll turn increasingly cooler with some wintry weather in the North and East.

GFS Ensembles

We need to pay attention to the low pressure system to the West of Greenland over the next couple of days, it’s this system that has the potential to make or break this up coming cold spell. The GFS sends the energy from this low pressure system Northwards and this helps support and maintain the area of high pressure across Greenland, the ECM however wants to send the energy Westwards and this has the opposite effect and breaks down the block.

GFS Model 12z

Whilst there is currently little support for the ECM model which wants to bring in milder Atlantic weather, it definitely cannot be dismissed. Through the course of next week it’ll turn gradually cooler with an increasing threat of snow across Northern and Eastern areas as we move through the second half of the week and into the weekend, beyond that? The general idea is for things to remain on the cold side however there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for this period.

 

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