Plenty to talk about as far as the models are concerned over the last couple of days. We’ve seen quite a shift away from cold from both the GFS & ECM model but the UKMO model has stuck solidly to the cold outcome.

I’m going to start by posting the ensemble mean charts from both the GFS and ECM for next Sunday.

GFS Ensemble Mean


ECM Ensemble Mean

Both models are currently in agreement for this time period and show colder air over the United Kingdom, however the low pressure system to the South of Greenland will eventually push over the UK bringing less cold conditions.

The NCEP height anomaly continue to suggest a very blocked pattern across the Arctic with lower pressure to the South and East of the UK, this suggests that any Atlantic interlude maybe short lived.

So I think as we go through the course of this week it’ll gradually turn colder with the snow risk increasing towards the end of the week across Northern and Eastern areas, initially over higher ground but perhaps down to lower levels in any heavier showers. Beyond that I think turning less cold though not mild whilst the blocking becomes re-established.

It’s important to note that the models have been rather volatile in the last couple of days and they’re struggling to model an area of low pressure moving into Canada, this has a knock on effect for the weather here in the UK. If the lows energy heads North into Western Greenland then blocking will remain and there will be no less cold interlude. The GFS and ECM are currently pushing this energy Eastwards however, hence the change in the possible outcome.

I expect we’ll see further changes within the models in the coming days, so don’t lose hope just yet if you’re a cold and snow fan, things still have time to improve.