Milder Blip, Turning Colder Again

December 3, 2012

Weather Forecasts


Some areas saw some snowfall last night as an area of low pressure tracked Eastwards across the country. This area of low pressure has brought some slightly less cold air with it but that’s not set to last as colder air will be pushing Southwards across the UK once again over the next couple of days.

Met Office 06z FAX Chart

Met Office 06z FAX Chart

The outlook for the course of this week remains the same really, generally quite cold with a threat of snow across Northern and Eastern areas never really too far away. I’m not expecting anything too significant snow-wise through the course of this week.

Towards the weekend however things become a little more interesting albeit with a lot of uncertainty within the model output. A deeper area of low pressure looks likely to push Eastwards through Scotland and then down into the North Sea bringing a risk of stronger winds and for a time heavier rain, as it begins to push South and East however colder air will once again start to dig into the flow which could bring the risk of some snowfall for some.

GFS 1

The tracking of this system will be key to working out the difference between snow and rain so I’ll keep you up-to date in the coming days.

Advertisements
, , , , , , , , , ,

Facebook

To get all the latest weather information and get involved with the discussion, head over to the Twitter and Facebook pages!

9 Comments on “Milder Blip, Turning Colder Again”

  1. guyfawkes Says:

    what is the highest temperature in which snow can fall(not rain)?

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      That’s quite a tricky question to answer because there are quite a few variables. In certain setups snow can fall with surface temperatures as high as 6c but in other setups surface temperatures could be 2c and it’ll be raining.

      The general rule of thumb for settling snow is this;

      Air Temperature: 2c below
      Dew Point: 0c below

      Reply

  2. Ray Tooley Says:

    I remember many years ago,when I was still a lad at school,we had snowfall in April…nothing extraordinary in that alone,but the air temperature started at 9c!!! The snow was so heavy,that it actually settled,but melted very rapidly once it stopped snowing. Another time,in November,the max.temp. for the day had been 16c. In the afternoon,it dropped to 7c and started to rain. Just as I was making my way home,it started snowing and got progressively colder and we ended up with about 4″ (10cm) of lovely,slippery snow! Incidentally,in the previous month,(October),we had a few light snow showers at the end of the month. It snowed in December, Then in the following year,it snowed in Jan,Feb,Mar. AND April.which meant we’d had SEVEN CONSECUTIVE MONTHS in which it had snowed!.

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Perfect examples of just how variable things are when it comes to snowfall. Usually when temperatures are shall we say on the higher side a heavy shower can drag the colder air down to the surface allowing snowfall to lower with it.

      The more important variable is Dew Points, if these go above freezing then it’ll almost certainly be raining, if the dew points are below freezing then we can see a bit more leeway with the other variables. One of the reason snow is so hard to forecast in this country!

      Reply

  3. Sib Says:

    Looks like from 15th December onwards southern England will finally see some snow.

    Reply

  4. Jack Keegan Says:

    Hi Daniel
    just looking at the model outputs up to the 20th December and I would really love to hear your take on them.
    I am tending to see very very cold conditions to the south east and east or mabe I am not reading the charts correctly if I am i think -10c in the midlands could well be on the cards.
    Do you think that sort of temp is likely just cant see any snow but the cold seems to be taking a stronger hold than I thought it would this time last week.

    P.s. how is your weather station working for you lots of fun i hope

    Jack

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      It’s really too early to forecast such specifics. The models are having trouble with tonights forecast let alone forecasts for the 20th. I’d say the overall trend is defnitely one of cold. The latest 32 Day ECM Update suggests a very blocked pattern for much of the month with temperatures some 2-3c below average.

      I’m loving the weather station!

      Reply

  5. Jack Keegan Says:

    Hi Daniel

    Thank you so much for your reply I really value your opinion your site has truly increased my love of the weather good or bad as it may be I just love extreams hot, cold, wet or wind.
    P.S. I was not trying to force a forecast from you, I was mearly trying to improve my skills at reading the models, by asking your opinion.
    It was only after i posted my thoughts i realised this is not the place to improve my skills but yet again thank you so much for your reply.

    I am delighted the W.S is giving you lots of fun

    Keep up the good work every new post is a much awaited insight

    Jack

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s