Continuing Cold, Further Snow Risk

December 4, 2012

Weather Forecasts


Click Image to view Snow Watch

Click Image to view Snow Watch

The headline in the last couple of days has been for snowfall. Most of the snow has been towards the North and East of the country and I think that’ll be the continuing theme as we head towards the weekend. There is a chance we could see some snowfall to areas further South but there’s a lot of uncertainty over this and will need monitoring closer to the time. I’m also keeping a close eye on the possibility of another frontal transient snowfall risk for Thursday night and into Friday. If you’d like to keep fully up to date on the developments then “like” our Facebook page, updates on current events are often posted there. Facebook Page

The overall trend beyond this week is for temperatures to remain on the cooler side of average bar one or two brief milder blips as low pressure pushes through.  The two charts below are the NCEP height anomalies and these show just how blocked our weather is likely to become over the next two weeks with high pressure to our North and East.

NCEP 6-10 Day Height Anomaly

NCEP 6-10 Day Height Anomaly

NCEP 10-14 Day Height Anomaly Chart

NCEP 10-14 Day Height Anomaly Chart

Next we’ll take a look at both the GFS & ECM Ensemble Mean, they’re both in fairly good agreement for a blocking area of high pressure across Scandinavia giving us a cool continental airflow. The surface details on the two models are different but overall both show cold weather.

GFS Ensemble Mean

GFS Ensemble Mean

ECM Ensemble Mean

ECM Ensemble Mean

The long term trend continues then to be one of cold in the long term with very little sign of anything mild in the outputs.

Advertisements

Facebook

To get all the latest weather information and get involved with the discussion, head over to the Twitter and Facebook pages!

16 Comments on “Continuing Cold, Further Snow Risk”

  1. Sib Says:

    Huge snow flakes for Buckinghamshire at 3:49 am

    Reply

  2. Brad Says:

    it’s getting exciting now!

    Reply

  3. michael haydon Says:

    my little friend in Slovakia, said it was snowing in her town yesterday, with temps all day of -3C.

    Of course, the more east you live in Europe, the more chances of snow on a regular basis, in Nwest coast here overnight, just rain and more rain, keen strong wind, but thats about it.

    Snow is such a rare occurrence on Atlantic facing coasts, I give up waiting for it for 5 years now,:( The last 5 inch deep snow event we had on Fylde coast was nearly 10 years ago now!

    Reply

    • mud4fun Says:

      I’m on the east coast, just south of the humber bridge, and we generally get snow every winter. Varies from a few days to several weeks. Last year we had 10″ in one night but it melted very quickly. The year before we had snow on the ground from October to the following February and we had to dig trenches to get to the coal bunker!! it was 3 feet deep across most of the garden and we had lows of -20 on several nights.

      It has only been -2 for the last few nights so relatively warm in comparison but I saw a few snow flakes earlier and the sky has gone very grey so I’m expecting snow tonight after it goes dark.

      With two big 4×4’s including an old Land Rover on knobbly and siped winter compound tyres I don’t have too many issues with snow myself but the problem is so many roads closed due to other people attempting to drive in unsuitable vehicles or even other 4×4’s on summer tyres! I dread having to commute to work in snow. Thankfully we have great sites like this to give us good warning of what is going on so I can then plan my commutes accordingly.

      Reply

  4. Ray Tooley Says:

    Some light snow showers in Brighton this morning and some rather heavier ones just inland. Currently,it’s 0c outside in my garden,and it’s only 4.15pm!! (Was minus 4c this morming at 5.30am)

    Reply

  5. mud4fun Says:

    0c here now. Snowing quite hard and sticking. (Brigg, North East)

    Reply

  6. Spah Says:

    Other sites stating ‘Long fetch easterly flow next weekend’ !!!! Please enlighten!

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      The Easterly prognosis is continuing to look like the likely outcome based on todays outputs, turning increasingly cold through next week with the snow risk increasing, particularly in the East. I’ll have an update on the Blog tomorrow, I’m focussing more on tomorrow and Fridays potential snow risk at the moment

      Reply

  7. mud4fun Says:

    The snow stopped after an hour last night as the skies cleared again however it stayed below freezing so had a nice crisp 1/4″ everywhere this morning when I left home at 4:30am. It was -2.6c when I left which is pretty warm really for this time of year. I still haven’t got around to fitting the winter tyres on my jap pickup because it has been so warm. In previous years they’d normally have been fitted back at the start of November. Looking like the chances of a white christmas are higher this year due to the late arrival of the cold snap?

    Reply

  8. michael haydon Says:

    Easterly airflow’s at this time of year, bring the really cold temperatures into the United Kingdom. Along with Moisture it picks up from the North Sea, Its where the East Coast and eastern inland areas get the type of snow event that Mudforfun was talking about.

    Normally The more West you are, especially west of the pennines, it stays Dry, sunny , but very cold with hard night frosts. The classic condition for a more widespread snow event across lancashire, yorkshire, and parts of the midlands, is if a fast moving low pressure system, from the Atlantic,bumps straight into the frigid cold air in place, the cold air undercutting the warmer system, so when the rain falls from the fronts, it meets the freezing air lower in the atmosphere, creating, a ready made snow storm. Again Western coastal areas, almost always get rain, because of the proximity of the warmer sea temps of the Irish sea, plus salt laden Micro climates that inhabit the coastal regions, inhibits the forming of ice/snow crystals even more.

    Reply

  9. michael haydon Says:

    WoW! Weather Forecasters were Forced to Apologize for not correctly forecasting the “White Out” that occurred yesterday.

    “Weather Forecaster’s were red faced yesterday”, “Although we did forecast some light or patchy snow in some areas, We didn’t expect the amount that fell during yesterday, with up to 6inches of snow in north Yorkshire and Midlands being hardest Hit”. Trains, Airports, were closed for a while, while traffic chaos reigned as The general public were caught in the unexpected heavy snow fall.

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Yeah must admit I wasn’t expecting snowfall to be quite so significant, the risk was well highlighted on the Blog however. It was a very complex situation and one that was developing throughout the night, computer models had a very poor handle on it.

      Reply

      • Sib Says:

        Hi Daniel,

        As another low pressure moves in, should we expect more snow? We had snow in Buckinghamshire/Northamptonshire yesterday early morning too. Although not significant, it did settle and still hasn’t melted away.

        Reply

    • mud4fun Says:

      I think blaming the weather forecasters for traffic chaos is ridiculous. It was well forecast that we had risk of snow showers. The temperatures had also dropped significantly in a few short days while we still had rain clouds merrily passing through so there was always going to be snow in certain areas.

      The traffic chaos is largely due to the general public being morons. Every winter I see people driving too fast for the conditions, too close to other road users and generally incapable of driving with any skill whatsoever. The same people will happily pay £30K for a brand new car and then object to paying £800 for an extra set of winter tyres! There is no excuse for people to be having so many problems on snow and ice even in 2WD cars. All my 4×4’s are actually part time 4WD meaning they normally operate only in 2WD unless I select the 4WD and engage the front free wheeling hubs. They are also all rear wheel drive when in 2WD. On winter tyres my trucks can happily drive around on sheet ice and several inches of snow without the need to engage 4WD. This is because of the extra traction the winter compound rubber and the extra siping that winter tyres have. Conversely even in 4WD my trucks struggle to get much grip and are very dangerous to drive when on summer tyres on ice and snow.

      If people simply bought a set of proper winter tyres they would find themselves far more able to cope with conditions. I believe it should be made mandatory in the UK. If they left home earlier it would help too as they could then drive more slowly and not be in so much of a rush to get to work etc. I leave my house at 4:30am to drive to Coventry which is 130 miles away. I drive at a steady 55mph and get to work about 7am. I am not even meant to start work until 9am! However by leaving early I am driving on near empty roads and am getting far higher mpg than at rush hour and I get to work relaxed and ready for the day ahead. It also means that in winter I have a full 2 hours additional time on my hands to compensate for any delays due to snow etc.

      I also believe that councils should actually reduce the amount of gritting they do in severe cold weather because it actually makes the roads more dangerous for two reasons: 1) Snow and ice if left without grit in very cold conditions actually forms a very high traction surface for use with winter tyres. I have found many times that ungritted roads have bene far safer to drive on than gritted ones because the grit makes the ice/snow wet and the wet is what makes ice a killer. It also tends to melt the naturally rough surface and then it refreezes as a very smooth icy surface – not good! 2) If people think the roads are gritted they drive too fast and indeed risk driving in unsuitable cars on unsuitable tyres and it results in far more acidents. Ungritted roads tend to put off those without suitable vehicles and/or driving skills.

      These are just my opinions but I’ve driven over one million miles since passing my test and I’ve driven tens of thousands of miles on snow and ice and I find it unbelievable the troubles so many people seem to have. As far as I’m concerned it is NOT the fault of a weather forecaster if you can’t cope with a bit of snow! 🙂

      Reply

  10. Scooby_Finchy Says:

    I agrea I was speaking to a few of the polish lads at work and during winter there they have to by law put winter tyres on there vehicle’s.
    Also what bothers me is the amount of people who will still try and drive with no confidence in there driving in snowy conditions my saying to people if in doubt don’t its becuase of theis morons that insurance prices are going up every year due to the amount of crashes in the snow.
    I never have problems in either of my cars with winter tyres (Nissan 200sx RWD & Subaru impreza AWD).

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s