Turning Milder, Wet and Windy

December 10, 2012

Weather Forecasts


5425328898_c653f8a835_zThe computer charts late last week and through the weekend backtracked significantly from what was looking likely to be a cold and snowy period of weather. Instead we have seen colder air push across the UK but it’s been largely dry with wintry showers being confined to the extreme East and South-East.

The cold weather will be with us for a couple more days giving widespread overnight frost, mist and fog with a risk of one or two wintry showers continuing in Eastern areas. Through the second part of the week and into the weekend the Atlantic will begin to push across the UK bringing a return to milder Atlantic driven weather. There is still some uncertainty over how quickly this is going to happen and whether or not it’ll bring a period of snow. At the moment widespread snowfall is looking unlikely however things could well change.

Into the weekend we’re going to see further spells of rain which could bring the risk of further flooding down across South-Western areas, this will be accompanied by strong Westerly winds so whilst it’ll feel warmer, it wont necessarily be very pleasant outside either.

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10 Comments on “Turning Milder, Wet and Windy”

  1. Lee Says:

    Daniel, what are the chances of a complete turn around like 2010?

    https://ukweather.wordpress.com/2010/12/13/ensembles-model-flip/

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Very low I’d say – The conditions back then were very different, it was a classic case of the GFS underestimating the blocking and then correcting itself. We’ve seem all other models move to support the Atlantic break down and with it only a few days away now we can be fairly certain in the outcome. That’s of course not to say we wont see a further cold risk later in the month, I do hold out some hope that January will bring re-newed blocking and cold.

      Reply

      • JP Says:

        Quick question then, any site that bases there forecast only in gfs should be ignored? Just check a decent reliable ish site and they forecasting after the weekend the cold to return till after xmas

        Reply

        • Daniel Smith Says:

          Are these text forecasts or graphical ones? Many websites use graphics which simply take the raw data from the GFS with little human input, forecasts like these should be ignored because they’ll change every-time the GFS changes

          Reply

  2. adam Says:

    Typical crappy British weather. Wash out summer and a let down winter 😦

    Reply

    • Spah Says:

      Rubbish wet windy weather. Was looking forward to snow days off work, traffic chaos, walks in winterwonderland and mulled wine by the fire. Most websites predicted a cold second half of December, what happened?

      Reply

  3. Joe Says:

    Studying GFS and ECM models they have been very uncertain for the last two weeks switching and changing every few days. Milder outcome then colder out come then switch, this happened several times. My take was we was never going to have a long spell if cold weather, people have commented saying they haven’t seen the models ever look so uncertain, and if i give my take on things I always thought and suggested earlier on in other posts, that milder weather would push in, which it did a couple of times then the cold came back and now we are expecting the mild weather again until at least after Xmas I you ask me.

    Reply

  4. sara Says:

    we were spoilt in 2010, and this is the problem, i myself expect it every winter now lol, but for decent snow in the UK so many different things have to fall exactly into place, i have been regularly visiting a model forum site, and have seen the snow coming twice for the models to just back away from it as it gets closer to the reliable time frame, it is a shame, but that’s UK winters for you, im hoping for another shot at a decent snowy cold spell, but at the moment the models don’t want to play lol

    Reply

  5. mud4fun Says:

    Not that mild this morning, was -2 when I left Brigg at 4:45am and there were snow flakes falling on the M180 about 30 mins later but turned to rain pretty quickly. Really bad ice this morning too, worst so far this winter for us and took a good 20 mins to de-ice the truck. Now in Coventry and it is only just above freezing here. Still seems to be a good chance of snow in the next couple of weeks for the east coast where I live, probably not for anybody else further west though 😦

    Reply

  6. Sib Says:

    Freezing fog in Milton Keynes right now. I see very fine ice crystals falling. Everything has turned white.
    Is this normal? I have never witnessed such a thing in fog it’s very weird.

    Reply

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