Christmas Update + Cooler Period?

December 20, 2012

Weather Forecasts


Through the rest of this week and into the weekend we’re going to see further spells of rain bringing the risk of flooding for some as low pressure systems continue to push in from the West.

As we go into early next week and into the Christmas period it looks as if the milder weather is going to remain with us. The good news is that there isn’t much of a signal for excessive rainfall on Christmas day itself with any rain looking likely to be light and showery, though of course the details are likely to change between now and then. The snow risk therefore remains low with anything wintry being confined to the high ground of Scotland.

GFS Temperature prediction for Christmas day

GFS Temperature prediction for Christmas day

Beyond Christmas things become very messy and complicated. It does look like we’re going to see cooler air coming down from the North perhaps giving a snow risk to Northern areas. The GFS Ensemble members show support for this, though perhaps turning milder again into the new year.

GFS Ensembles

GFS Ensembles

The cooler period is supported too by the ECM Ensembles,the huge scatter as we move into the new year suggests a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.

The height anomaly NCEP model continues to suggest high pressure developing in the Atlantic with low pressure placed over or to the East of the United Kingdom suggesting a cool zonal setup.

NCEP height anomaly chart

NCEP height anomaly chart

Forecast:

Remaining mild and wet with further flooding issues through into the weekend. Into next week things turning perhaps drier with a showery but mild for most Christmas day. From Boxing Day onwards things cooling down somewhat bringing a snow risk to Scotland and perhaps Northern England. There’s no clear signal for any particular weather type as we move into the New Year with a lot of scatter and uncertainty within the model outputs.

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2 Comments on “Christmas Update + Cooler Period?”

  1. guyfawkes Says:

    is the stratospheric warming going to affect soon or after January?

    Reply

  2. mud4fun Says:

    Not more rain! The fields are saturated here with many having large lakes of surface water. Hard to believe we had a hose pipe ban 6 months ago and that we were told it would take two years for the aquifers to refill…….our spring fed well is full to the top! It has been a dire year for decent weather as a full four weeks of my five weeks annual leave has been ruined by torrential rain despite being spread out over the year. A very wet year here. Not sure on how it rates against previous years but I seem to recall 2007 as being really wet too as our garden flooded badly then. I don’t mind the extreme cold, deep snow or very warm weather but this dank, wet and rainy weather for months on end gets very depressing!

    Reply

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