Through the rest of this week and into the weekend we’re going to see further spells of rain bringing the risk of flooding for some as low pressure systems continue to push in from the West.

As we go into early next week and into the Christmas period it looks as if the milder weather is going to remain with us. The good news is that there isn’t much of a signal for excessive rainfall on Christmas day itself with any rain looking likely to be light and showery, though of course the details are likely to change between now and then. The snow risk therefore remains low with anything wintry being confined to the high ground of Scotland.

GFS Temperature prediction for Christmas day
GFS Temperature prediction for Christmas day

Beyond Christmas things become very messy and complicated. It does look like we’re going to see cooler air coming down from the North perhaps giving a snow risk to Northern areas. The GFS Ensemble members show support for this, though perhaps turning milder again into the new year.

GFS Ensembles
GFS Ensembles

The cooler period is supported too by the ECM Ensembles,the huge scatter as we move into the new year suggests a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.

The height anomaly NCEP model continues to suggest high pressure developing in the Atlantic with low pressure placed over or to the East of the United Kingdom suggesting a cool zonal setup.

NCEP height anomaly chart
NCEP height anomaly chart

Forecast:

Remaining mild and wet with further flooding issues through into the weekend. Into next week things turning perhaps drier with a showery but mild for most Christmas day. From Boxing Day onwards things cooling down somewhat bringing a snow risk to Scotland and perhaps Northern England. There’s no clear signal for any particular weather type as we move into the New Year with a lot of scatter and uncertainty within the model outputs.

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