I’ll admit that trying to forecast the weather from beyond the weekend is proving very difficult to do. The models are changing with each run and with a fair amount of scatter within the ensembles it’s hard to nail down the most likely outcome.

What we do know is that it’ll be turning increasingly cooler through the course of this week as high pressure begins to develop to the North of the United Kingdom. If we take a look at the GFS 06z ensembles we can see the sharp downward trend in temperature.

06z GFS Ensembles
06z GFS Ensembles

The uncertainty in the forecast begins around the 13th of January when the ensembles begin to scatter quite widely suggesting many different possible outcomes. The ECM ensembles tend to paint a very similar picture

ECM EnsemblesTaking a look at the latest height anomaly charts can often give us a sense of direction and where we might be heading at times of uncertainty, however even the GFS & ECM height anomaly models are disagreeing with each other, small changes in the atmosphere can lead to very different weather outcomes for us here in the UK.

GFS & ECM Height Anomaly Charts show disagreement suggesting uncertainty
GFS & ECM Height Anomaly Charts show disagreement suggesting uncertainty

Conclusion & Forecast

Through the course of the week temperatures will gradually cool off but as we move through the weekend i’m expecting much colder weather to push in from the East thanks to an area of low pressure pushing South/South-East across Southern England. As usual there’s a lot of uncertainty about how this is going to develop but there are two possible outcomes.

1. Low Pressure pushes across the country for longer, this would keep the colder air out in the East and any precipitation from the low pressure would fall mostly as rain.

2. Low Pressure clears to the South of the UK relatively quickly allowing colder air to push in giving us a rain turning to snow event.

At the moment, there’s no clear signal for either outcome. Looking further into next week it looks like things will remain cold with perhaps a further snow threat but as I’ve stressed throughout this post, things remain very uncertain.

I will of course keep you up to date in the coming days with more frequent updates.


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