Becoming Increasing Colder

January 7, 2013

Weather Forecasts


I’ll admit that trying to forecast the weather from beyond the weekend is proving very difficult to do. The models are changing with each run and with a fair amount of scatter within the ensembles it’s hard to nail down the most likely outcome.

What we do know is that it’ll be turning increasingly cooler through the course of this week as high pressure begins to develop to the North of the United Kingdom. If we take a look at the GFS 06z ensembles we can see the sharp downward trend in temperature.

06z GFS Ensembles

06z GFS Ensembles

The uncertainty in the forecast begins around the 13th of January when the ensembles begin to scatter quite widely suggesting many different possible outcomes. The ECM ensembles tend to paint a very similar picture

ECM EnsemblesTaking a look at the latest height anomaly charts can often give us a sense of direction and where we might be heading at times of uncertainty, however even the GFS & ECM height anomaly models are disagreeing with each other, small changes in the atmosphere can lead to very different weather outcomes for us here in the UK.

GFS & ECM Height Anomaly Charts show disagreement suggesting uncertainty

GFS & ECM Height Anomaly Charts show disagreement suggesting uncertainty

Conclusion & Forecast

Through the course of the week temperatures will gradually cool off but as we move through the weekend i’m expecting much colder weather to push in from the East thanks to an area of low pressure pushing South/South-East across Southern England. As usual there’s a lot of uncertainty about how this is going to develop but there are two possible outcomes.

1. Low Pressure pushes across the country for longer, this would keep the colder air out in the East and any precipitation from the low pressure would fall mostly as rain.

2. Low Pressure clears to the South of the UK relatively quickly allowing colder air to push in giving us a rain turning to snow event.

At the moment, there’s no clear signal for either outcome. Looking further into next week it looks like things will remain cold with perhaps a further snow threat but as I’ve stressed throughout this post, things remain very uncertain.

I will of course keep you up to date in the coming days with more frequent updates.

P.S

I’ve installed a new design onto the website to give it a more professional feel, I’ll be tweaking a few things in the coming days, I hope you like the changes!

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6 Comments on “Becoming Increasing Colder”

  1. brad Says:

    Thanks for the detailed update, really hope that this will be the real start to the snow events.

    Reply

  2. mike Says:

    lots of cold and snowy weather to the east,i think its time for our share,dont you all think!!

    Reply

  3. Jo Says:

    Most definitely!

    Reply

  4. Simon Says:

    Even local radio talking about SSW and severe cold
    πŸ™‚ fingers crossed!

    Reply

  5. mud4fun Says:

    The site changes look good πŸ™‚

    I’m hoping for some cold weather/snow simply because I’ve swapped onto my winter tyres and am suffering crippling drop in fuel economy (15%) now so I’d like some proper winter weather to justify their fitment! πŸ˜‰

    Mind you in typical British ‘never satisfied’ style I also want it to be sunny and warm as I have some work to do on my old Land Rover and I’m getting too old to be working on the drive in cold weather πŸ™‚

    Reply

  6. jack72@talktalk.net Says:

    Hi there Daniel, yes like the new additions to the website, and thanks again for your honest and open forecasts. I run a business that relies on current and future ground conditions, and it really helps to be able to collate information from sites like yours. I agree, it’s not getting any easier to see what the short to mid term has in store at the moment. Good luck with the forecasts; I think february may be a very cold one UKwide but don’t listen to me as my record lately has been tragic!!!

    Bw, Jack in Rugby.

    Reply

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