Saturdays Snow Risk & Beyond

January 11, 2013

Weather Forecasts


The models are continuing to cause a forecasting headache as far as next week is concerned with a few different outcomes possible, but before I move onto that and talk about what next week bring I want to talk about tomorrows (Saturday) snow risk.

Snow-Risk-MapThrough the early hours of Saturday morning a weather front associate with a short-wave will push up into Southern parts of England. The snow risk on this frontal system has been downgraded on recent model outputs with rain or sleet looking more likely than snow. We could however see some wet snow on the Northern edge of this system especially for areas above 200m and again the chance of something more snowy as the system clears Southwards through Saturday but nothing significant is expected.

Through the day as colder air pushes Eastwards we’ll also begin to see sleet and snow showers pushing into Eastern areas of England and Scotland, these are expected to fall mostly as rain to extreme coastal areas but should be more wintry in nature as they move inland. Accumulations of 2-4cm cannot be ruled out with 5-7cm possible locally over higher ground.

Through into Sunday I’m expecting a largely dry, bright but cold day across the country, we could see some sleet and snow showers moving into Eastern areas perhaps extending down into East Anglia and the South-East at times giving localised accumulations of 2-4cm. A more significant risk of snow begins to show its hand through Sunday afternoon, overnight and into Monday however as a shortwave begins to track Southwards across the country. The NMM, a high resolution model shows this turning increasingly to snow as it moves into the cold air

High Resolution NMM Model for Sunday

High Resolution NMM Model for Sunday

uk-counties-mapThere is some uncertainty over where the main risk of snow is likely to fall through Sunday and Monday, some models want to bring an area of slightly milder temperatures into Wales, Western parts of England and down into South-West England which would turn things back to rain and sleet, limiting snow to higher ground. Northern Ireland is not expected to see significant snowfall from this setup with rain and sleet most likely.

Once this moves into range of the High Resolution models we’ll be able to get a better idea over where the snow is likely to fall. As things currently stand, areas to the East of the red line are at risk from some significant disruption with localised snowfalls of up to 20cm possible. Areas West of the red line are considered less likely to see disruption from significant snowfall. I will of course update you as things become clearer.

Through into Tuesday and beyond then, perhaps a chance of further significant snowfall but there’s a lot of uncertainty concerning this. Eastern areas now look likely to hold onto the cold weather until at least Friday although we could see milder air just creeping into Western areas from time to time as frontal systems come up against the cold block.

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2 Comments on “Saturdays Snow Risk & Beyond”

  1. Scooby_Finchy Says:

    What do you think the chances are of snowfall in dorset over the next couple if days as on tge map were on tge line lol

    Reply

  2. Hayley Says:

    What are the chances Midhurst (West Sussex) for Monday? how much do you think we will have if any? Thanks 🙂

    Reply

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