Severe Weather Warning Issued

January 16, 2013

Weather Warnings


Severe Weather Warning Issued

Valid: Friday 18th – Saturday 19th January 2013

Issued For: Heavy Snowfall

Highlights:

  • Cold air embedded over the United Kingdom
  • An active warm front will occlude as it pushes Eastwards turning rain increasingly to snow
  • Significant snowfall accumulations likely to cause problems

Forecast Detail:

During the course of Friday an Atlantic weather front will begin to push Eastwards across the United Kingdom. Due to high pressure over Scandinavia pushing cold air over the UK precipitation will turn to snow across a large part of the United Kingdom. The front will become slow moving as it pushes Eastwards into an area of high pressure and it’ll begin weakening.

Warnings Issued Map

Warnings Issued Map

The heaviest snowfall at the moment is likely to be across Wales, South-Western Scotland and across the Midlands where we could see accumulations of 10-20cm, perhaps locally as much as 25-30cm across higher ground. The snow will turn increasingly to rain and sleet to the extreme West and South-West thawing any lying snow. Northern Ireland could see a short period of snow in the East but I think it’ll largely fall as rain here which could cause some issues with flooding, even so a brief 1-3cm cannot be ruled out.

Snow Depth Map - Totals are likely to vary, take this as a guide. Localised totals could be higher or lower than stated here

Snow Depth Map – Totals are likely to vary, take this as a guide. Localised totals could be higher or lower than stated here

The front will continue edging Eastwards all the while sliding South-East into France while weakening.  As the front pivots and stalls across Central Southern England and South-East England we could see accumulations pushing 10cm quite widely with totals perhaps as high as 20cm across higher ground.

Snow looks likely to linger across South Eastern parts into Saturday again giving further snowfall accumulations before eventually clearing.

As we move into next week it looks like things will remain cold with further snow threats possible.

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20 Comments on “Severe Weather Warning Issued”

  1. Imran Says:

    Yeahhhh, woohoo! Hope your right! I live in southeast and will be perfect for the weekend. Here’s to happy sledging with the kids!

    Reply

  2. Angela Watkins Says:

    I have only recently discovered your site and think it’s very informative. I live in Shropshire on the welsh border so am preparing for snow!

    Reply

  3. pel Says:

    Hi,so this cold snap will go in to next week? meaning the warm air in the atlantic will not cross over the uk?please give us your thoughts.

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Milder air may get into the far South and West, but the general theme is for things to remain on the cold side

      Reply

      • pel Says:

        Thank you Daniel,i was looking on the bbc website on exactly how the upper stratosphere warms etc,so i pressume this is one time this has happed,very interesting.
        Friday will prove very interesting any idea of time of arrival in the York vale area?

        Reply

        • Daniel Smith Says:

          Yup – This is all down to a major Stratospheric warming over the Arctic, the cold could be here for a while!

          I’d say late Friday afternoon/evening if it makes it quite that far, there’s still some uncertainty over that

          Reply

  4. Paul Moody Says:

    Hi Mate,

    FYI see report below

    if the forecast tomorrow stays the same I’m going to cancel the hotel for Thursday and Friday night and head home after the training tomorrow. I can’t get my money back on the hotel as prepaid so if you want it for the Friday night if you can still make it to suits and vinyl then make use of it and I’ll give you the key.

    Cheers

    Paul S Moody Dip PFS
    Principal Partner of
    Moody’s Financial Consultancy Partner Practice of St. James’s Place Wealth Management.

    Reply

  5. sue Says:

    Can’t wait for some much wanted SNOW 😀

    Reply

  6. Steven Brown Says:

    Great blog, I just recent came across it and I lie the fact it’s more in-depth than all the other weather related sites. I’ve been checking it everyday for updates, thank you!

    Reply

  7. Dave Says:

    Hi Daniel, Thanks yet again for your work. I’m getting a feww cross messages across the various weather voices on the web. A lot are saying things like there is a 95% chance of this event occurring in Wiltshire. Yet has recently posted that the Jury is still out on the whole thing happening at all. I’ve put our team to standby this evening as to me it seems that confidence is high enough to take note. Cheers, Dave

    Reply

  8. Luke Storey Says:

    Really excited, so far this winter, I’ve found the MO and ECM’s to have the most accurate outputs – probably because they’re the only ones sophisticated enough to take into account the effects of SSW, and both of these models currently favour a further cold and snowy outlook well into next week.

    Let’s just hope they continue to be right 😀

    Reply

  9. Imran Says:

    Is there any chance you could give an update for southeast? Should I be worried about getting back from work? I work in Banstead, Surrey and it’s supposed to be the highest point in surrey.

    Reply

  10. michael haydon Says:

    Looks like the Main Bulk of this Weather Front, is Sliding away down to South West England. The North West , appears to have been taken out of the “Amber Zone”, Although Liverpool and Blackpool, seems to be on the very edge of getting the heavy stuff.

    You really dont know where a weather system is going to turn, Once it Hits the Cold Block of Continental Air, Now Forecasters are more certain, the bulk of this event will take place across most of wales, west midlands, down into Bristol area and Into Devon, and Cornwall. maybe Manchester Area will get a dusting, but all the while the weather system continues slipping sideways into South western areas. There maybe not a lot to see. However, this is an ongoing situation, which extends right into early next week, so anything is possible. Tescos in Chorley yesterday, was doing a roaring trade in de icer, antifreeze, bags of Special salt, for paths and rock salt. Flying of the shelves like bats out of hell 😀

    Reply

    • michael haydon Says:

      Well, this is interesting, Our next Snow belt is going to be coming along from A low pressure system currently steaming out of Iberia!

      It looks like we now being attacked from the west by Atlantic weather fronts, and from Systems from areas we don’t normally get at this time of year.

      As most people are aware, Low pressure systems coming our way from Spain and N Africa in the summer, bring heat & thunderstorms, torrential downpours among other things.

      This may be only a glitch, as I see the Models are forecasting most of this mass of weather to slip more east of us towards the continent. This in my typical visual outlook, sends a message to me, that the Gulf Stream, is in imminent danger of being pushed way back away from our shores fora considerable time, maybe weeks.

      However, the climate is such a hot potato at this present time, it would be a brave forecaster, who could forecast more than 48 hours ahead. let alone, the next few weeks.

      Blackpool missed most of the snow, but enough to coat the paths and grass, which turned to ice last night. been another bitterly cold day here, due to that strong southeasterly. How further north & west this low pressure system currently at 992mbs, (but that could deepen) gets, along with its snow is anyone’s guess, it might brush into North West, Cheshire too, as its dragged into the Strong east winds.

      Another two low pressure systems are waiting in the wings, off the South West, again, there track is so changeable, like the snow, that changed course, and hit wales, instead of steaming its way from west to east. perhaps Danial has some information, as to why we are getting Iberian Weather systems at this time of year, which is quite unusual to say the least?

      Reply

  11. pel Says:

    Hi Daniel,ok we all know whats heading our way,please can you give us your thoughts on whats going to happen sunday onwards,from what i can see another active front is heading our way.

    Reply

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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