Further Snow, Less Cold Later?

January 20, 2013

Weather Forecasts


There is now growing support for less cold conditions to push across the United Kingdom towards the end of the week and into the weekend but before I get into that I’d like to talk about tomorrow (Mondays) snow potential!

Snow-Risk-MapThrough the day an area of snow will work its way Northwards across Eastern parts of England moving into Scotland, snowfall could become quite heavy at times leading to accumulations of 1-5cm quite widely although 5-10cm could be possible in the areas highlighted on the chart to the left. Localised accumulations of up to 15-20cm cannot be ruled out, particularly where snowfall becomes persistent and areas of higher elevation.

A weak weather front is also forecasted to push Eastwards to the South of the UK, this brings the risk of some further sleet and snow into Southern parts of England although it is considered a low risk, there is the potential for 1-2cm in some areas, particularly towards the South-East.

With all the focus recently being in the short-term recently with all these snow events, I thought I’d have a look further ahead to see what we can expect from the end of the week onwards! It is going to remain cold throughout this week though with a further risk of snow for some!

The Arctic Oscillation looks set to remain in a negative phase albeit with a larger spread in the ensembles towards the last part of the month. The NAO looks set to remain neutral

NAO/AO ensemble forecasts

NAO/AO ensemble forecasts

The GFS ensembles point towards things becoming less cold towards the end of the week with good support for this outcome, although the GFS has wanted to bring an end to this cold spell since it begun and it’s performance in the last two or so weeks has been very poor.

GFS Ensembles

The difference this time however, is that we’re seeing increasing support from the ECM ensemble members too and from what I hear, MOGREPS

ECM ensembles

ECM ensembles

So I think it’s safe to say the end of this cold spell will be later this week or perhaps into the weekend with a gradual moderation of temperature, how the breakdown will occur/whether or not it’ll be a snowy one is still very uncertain however. The height anomaly charts tend to agree with this outcome with low pressure coming in from the West and relatively little blocking to our North or East

ECM & GFS Height Anomaly Chart

ECM & GFS Height Anomaly Chart

NCEP height anomaly chart

NCEP height anomaly chart

Interestingly though, the NAEFS is forecasting high pressure to develop to our North and West as we go into early February, so there are signs that the less cold conditions may only be a temporary thing.

NAEFS Pressure Prediction Chart

NAEFS Pressure Prediction Chart

So remaining cold through this week with further snowfall at times although perhaps increasingly sleety towards the far South and West – Towards the end of the week and into the weekend temperatures turning slightly milder as the Atlantic begins to move in, how this happens is still undetermined but there is good support for less cold conditions to take over now.

Into early February perhaps some tentative signs of things becoming progressively colder again.

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4 Comments on “Further Snow, Less Cold Later?”

  1. Jamie Says:

    Just FYI Met office have just updated the weather warning area for Monday…. with the heavier snow just slightly more towards the west of the current warning 🙂

    Reply

  2. snocat Says:

    hope feb has more we have next to nothing in the far north plus we need the overtime

    Reply

  3. michael haydon Says:

    Well, at long last its snowing in Blackpool, albeit not as heavy as Huddersfield, which I visit quite regularly, we have an inch or two here on our estate, pretty enough to take some pictures near the wildlife lake and the surrounding trees. No sleet though, still bitter, to cold for sleet, until perhaps midday period.

    With the current Atlantic fronts, combining with the Iberian weather now causing widespread problems in Northern france, I see Charles de Gaulle Airport, suffering same conditions as Heathrow, the potential for milder air to push back some of the Siberian Weather will probably win in time. Just have to wait and see really, and be aware snow and ice, now covers 90% of our country, so we all must drive differantly, do one big shop, instead of little one, and keep car up to scratch, if you must drive it, tesco’s are doing Mini temporary snow chains, made out of some material, they shouldnt damage your tyres, and may well get you up and down steep residential roads. The proper Snow chains used widely every year in the seventies, are only suitable, for roads that have heavy snow and ice on them. Dont use snow chains on roads that are clear, that will damage your tyres. (I used to be a garage owner). As Danial says, this is still only January, February, especially early, can bring just as much winter weather as now. Roll on march, to see some spring flowers soon:)

    Reply

  4. mud4fun Says:

    Forecast was slightly wrong for today (tuesday) as most forecasters said no snow for most of the journey I do (M180/M18/M1/M42) but this morning at 4:30 – 5am it was snowing heavily from Barnetby to Doncaster services on the M180. Also persistent but lighter snow all the way down to Chesterfield. In the north Wolds where we live we’ve had about 6-8″ in total but in 2″ drops at a time and in between much has melted. It was actually very warm yesterday, stayed above freezing all day and actually hit 3 degrees at one point so a quick thaw set in. The roads on the tops were worse but generally all pretty much clear this morning. I’m now down in coventry and it is much colder here (-2’ish) than up North but probably due to the clear skies here. It was only -0.1c when I left home at 4:30am but that was under thick cloud cover and snow.

    Reply

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