There is now growing support for less cold conditions to push across the United Kingdom towards the end of the week and into the weekend but before I get into that I’d like to talk about tomorrow (Mondays) snow potential!

Snow-Risk-MapThrough the day an area of snow will work its way Northwards across Eastern parts of England moving into Scotland, snowfall could become quite heavy at times leading to accumulations of 1-5cm quite widely although 5-10cm could be possible in the areas highlighted on the chart to the left. Localised accumulations of up to 15-20cm cannot be ruled out, particularly where snowfall becomes persistent and areas of higher elevation.

A weak weather front is also forecasted to push Eastwards to the South of the UK, this brings the risk of some further sleet and snow into Southern parts of England although it is considered a low risk, there is the potential for 1-2cm in some areas, particularly towards the South-East.

With all the focus recently being in the short-term recently with all these snow events, I thought I’d have a look further ahead to see what we can expect from the end of the week onwards! It is going to remain cold throughout this week though with a further risk of snow for some!

The Arctic Oscillation looks set to remain in a negative phase albeit with a larger spread in the ensembles towards the last part of the month. The NAO looks set to remain neutral

NAO/AO ensemble forecasts
NAO/AO ensemble forecasts

The GFS ensembles point towards things becoming less cold towards the end of the week with good support for this outcome, although the GFS has wanted to bring an end to this cold spell since it begun and it’s performance in the last two or so weeks has been very poor.

GFS Ensembles

The difference this time however, is that we’re seeing increasing support from the ECM ensemble members too and from what I hear, MOGREPS

ECM ensembles
ECM ensembles

So I think it’s safe to say the end of this cold spell will be later this week or perhaps into the weekend with a gradual moderation of temperature, how the breakdown will occur/whether or not it’ll be a snowy one is still very uncertain however. The height anomaly charts tend to agree with this outcome with low pressure coming in from the West and relatively little blocking to our North or East

ECM & GFS Height Anomaly Chart
ECM & GFS Height Anomaly Chart
NCEP height anomaly chart
NCEP height anomaly chart

Interestingly though, the NAEFS is forecasting high pressure to develop to our North and West as we go into early February, so there are signs that the less cold conditions may only be a temporary thing.

NAEFS Pressure Prediction Chart
NAEFS Pressure Prediction Chart

So remaining cold through this week with further snowfall at times although perhaps increasingly sleety towards the far South and West – Towards the end of the week and into the weekend temperatures turning slightly milder as the Atlantic begins to move in, how this happens is still undetermined but there is good support for less cold conditions to take over now.

Into early February perhaps some tentative signs of things becoming progressively colder again.

Advertisements