The Atlantic Returns – Snow Turning to Rain

January 24, 2013

Weather Forecasts


During the past two or so weeks we’ve seen a few fairly widespread snow events. The Atlantic is now finally going to be moving in across the United Kingdom turning things milder but also increasingly unsettled as we move into next week with low pressure systems bringing spells of heavy rainfall, this could potentially lead to further flooding to some areas.

Snow-Risk-MapBefore that happens though, we’re going to see a period of transient snowfall affect parts of the UK through tomorrow (Friday) as Atlantic weather fronts meet the colder air in place across the country. Further South and West I think it’ll generally be a rain event, though perhaps a few flakes of snow on the leading edge.

The risk of snow really affects London Northwards with accumulations quite widely between 3-6cm, though perhaps higher in some places, especially over higher ground. The snow should begin turning increasingly back to rain through the course of the day which should begin to melt any lying snow that has accumulated during the snowier period.

Into next week it looks likely that we’ll see spells of wet and windy weather and it’s likely weather warnings will be issued in the coming days for flooding potential.

 

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7 Comments on “The Atlantic Returns – Snow Turning to Rain”

  1. david Says:

    I wonder is that the end of winter?we still have feb and march to go

    Reply

  2. Angela Watkins Says:

    Thanks again for the interesting explanation, it will be sad to see the snow and the icicles melt. I have a feeling (though there is absolutely no science behind it) that we will have one or two more cold spells before a probably wet spring sets in…

    Reply

  3. michael haydon Says:

    The map above is completely different from the BBC snow cover and temps. The snow belt is going to hit all Nwest coastal regions for many hours, and the +6%C for tonight has been downgraded to Zero 0%C. The mild weather was forecast much to early, now not happening until Sunday instead of friday night. The temp in Blackpool where snow is falling right now is hovering at 1%C, but with a strong force 5-6 SSE wind, the real temp with the wind chill is more like -5%C. theres no chance for rain in Nwest coastal regions today, only in south west and west wales. Wish all you forecasters would get your act together and show same maps , it just annoys people, like i been hearing recently that many, just dont take any notice of forecasts on almost any channel or site, because they all say and put differant things down, many have lost the confidence in many sites, and TV channels, because one puts an entirely different picture, which leads to many people ignoring Disney type forecasts, and go about there business, instead of losing money, by not going to work, or putting off outside jobs, when weather forecasters are at odds with each other. IF we get rain at 18.00pm in Blackpool, Then the BBC has failed Big time,IF snow comes down in Blackpool as is forecast, then Danial’s forecast is BIG fail. Why cant you all give an accurate same forecast instead of trying to outdo each other, losing the public’s trust more and more??

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Forecasting is down to the individuals interpretation of the models, everyone has a different take. There wouldn’t be much point in having different forecast sites if everyone forecasted the exact same thing every time. I’ve have limited internet access at the moment so I haven’t been able to follow the models as closely as I would like.

      The models I looked at when writing this forecast did not show a strong snow signal for North Western coastal regions, hence the forecast. I do not get paid for making these forecasts, I make them out of my own free time because I have a passion for the weather. I don’t have access to the same super computer models that the likes of BBC Weather and Met Office have so at times, forecasts are not going to match up.

      Reply

    • Vignesh Says:

      If you dont know already, Daniel Smith is an independent forecaster who isn’t paid by anyone to forecast this. He is simply doing it out of passion. If you want to question the forecasters, I guess you have the right to write to Metoffice or BBC. I am puzzled how people don’t make any effort to understand who is who. If you spend a minute reading the ABOUT section of this blog, you will understand this.

      As many readers of this blog and your Facebook page would agree, Daniel is doing a great job with the updates, even people with no background knowledge about weather can understand his explanations. Please just spare him.

      Reply

      • michael haydon Says:

        Vignesh, I am not having a go at Danial’s site in particularly, in fact I supported him, when he first started this Site, and Still do, and I understand Danial, you don’t get paid, and like me,have a passion for the weather , like me, since I was 15 years old. Im just generalizing on the inaccuracies that seem to be prevalent this last 12 months, by many different Weather media.

        But on other hand, we take any public based official forecasts seriously to be able to plan ahead. Which was my point. As a disabled motorist, I have to consider very carefully, if I do travel or I don’t.

        The map shown above, turned out to be totally inaccurate , as shown on any news channel today, just 30 miles from me in Wigan, they had over Foot of snow, with hundred cars stuck for 8 hours, on the M6,( Low terrain ,not elevated) In Blackpool, we didn’t get the odd flake, we had heavy snow at 2pm-4pm, which coated everywhere white for a while, between 7pm till about 9pm it was very light, but by midnight, it was coming down big time, and all was white again. So If I had gone by Danial’s forecast of only seeing rain, or the odd flake, it could have been me stuck on the M6 just a few miles away, Which would have had serious consequences for people like me with limited mobility. Which is why I am saying, that forecasters have a responsibility whether they paid or not paid, if they choose to make an official forecast on a site, that it be reasonably accurate.

        Most of Danial’s Forecasts have been good and generally can be trusted to a certain degree, but on this occasion, a few flakes , or rain, Friday night was very inaccurate to say the least. Its no good people giving a thumbs down to my comment, because, any site , whatever it is, depends not only on good comments, but Site owners need and have to address the odd negative comment as well, and learn, and look into improving that part that caused a negative comment. With respect Danial, if you had only limited access to the net at that time, with hindsight, maybe you have been better not to publish the above forecast at all, which may seem harsh, But you still have a responsibility to the general public, to make sure of your facts.

        Maybe, at 4pm when the snow was coming down really heavy on the Fylde Coast, you could have a posted a “Flash warning” For heavy snow here, thus updating the obviously inaccurate forecast and map above. That would then have given people here better preparation, or curtailed any transport arrangements, and correcting a bad forecast, is likely to improve the sites reputation. I’m actually quite surprised you didn’t do this, as soon as it was obvious, that for several hours, this was going to be an all snow event.

        If I didn’t love this Site, I wouldn’t contribute to it, the way I do, I have nothing but praise for Danial’s efforts, but when something is not correct, me, or anybody has a democratic right to express an inaccurate posting. Well Sun shining today, going to give the car a run, as it hasn’t been used since the snow started here a week last Sunday.:)

        Reply

        • archangelmichael2 Says:

          Hi. I love UK snow weather too and there is nothing wrong with having a public forecast regardless if it’s about economics or weather forecasting needs to be held to some degree accountable as we as human beings always have to improve ourselves.

          Just when you think you know everything life lwayss finds away to make you realize how little you actually knew.

          A one size situation for holding officials accountable isn’t suitable either because Daniel and other weather blogs are free and work their ass off in the daytime and fill in at night?

          *At least I assume they do and are not just sucking taxpayers money doing nothing*

          Of course there are disclaimers on these blogs but who reads the fine print?

          We are in a rush rush rush world where everybody is too busy to pay attention to every tiny sneeze computer models make.

          Reply

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