Turning Increasingly Colder

February 3, 2013

Weather Forecasts


As we move into the new week you’ll notice temperatures will feel significantly colder, this is due to a Northerly flow developing bringing Arctic air across the United Kingdom.

Snow-Risk-MapThis is expected to bring snow showers into Northern and Western Scotland initially on Monday but these could become more widespread into Northern Ireland and Western coastal fringes of England as we move into Tuesday. Estimating accumulations in this type of setup is very hard due to the nature of showers so 1-5cm is possible quite widely along Western Coastal fringes although in areas that showers become more frequent totals could well be higher.

As we continue into the rest of the week temperatures are likely to remain below average with further snow possible at times although widespread snowfall currently isn’t in the forecast. There’s some uncertainties over where we go into the later part of the week. The ECM wants to build high pressure to the North of the United Kingdom turning things even colder.

ECM showing high pressure building to the North of the UK

ECM showing high pressure building to the North of the UK

Whilst the GFS builds high pressure over the UK keeping things cold but dry.

GFS Model

GFS Model

The ECM & GFS height anomaly charts are in fairly good agreement for high pressure becoming established to our North with low pressure to our South indicating a North or North-Easterly airflow is likely.

Height Anomaly Chart

Height Anomaly Chart

The NCEP height anomaly chart indicates something very similar placing high pressure in the Atlantic and across Scandinavia with low pressure to the South and East of the UK.

NCEP height anomaly chart

NCEP height anomaly chart

The ECM Ensembles show that whilst the operational model is at the colder end of the ensembles, there is good support for the weather to become increasingly cold through the course of next week although perhaps signs of a slight warm up in the longer range.

ECM Ensembles

ECM Ensembles

The GFS ensembles tend to agree with ECM ensembles, things becoming quite cold through the week although a slight warming trend, albeit very slight in the longer range.

 

GFS Ensembles

GFS Ensembles

Conclusion & Forecast

The weather is going to become increasingly seasonal through the next couple of days as colder North/North-Westerly winds develop allowing for widespread frosts. This will bring some snow showers into Western and Central Scotland, Northern Ireland and down the Western side of England and Wales through the first part of the week. Remaining cold into the second part of the week although snow risk slightly lower as winds take on more of a Northerly element to them.

Moving into the weekend remaining cold although there is some uncertainty in the overall setup and its this, that needs to be monitored.

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2 Comments on “Turning Increasingly Colder”

  1. David Says:

    so it is not going to be as cold or snowy as the last cold spell then,any chance of that? best leave me shovel in the shed this time 🙂

    Reply

  2. Joel's dad Says:

    Could you tell me what the wind speeds are likely to be?

    Reply

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