Turning Colder Again Next Week

February 14, 2013

Weather Forecasts


Milder conditions have swept across the country in the last 24 hours. Many Northern areas saw a spell of snow which turned increasingly to rain overnight. The mild conditions are expected to continue through into the weekend and early next week although I don’t think it’s going to last very long.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the models for the last couple of days and confidence is growing for a renewed surge of cold air as we move through the course of next week.

The ECM has been the first model to pick up on this hinting at High Pressure developing to our North.

ECM Model Run showing a cold Easterly flow

ECM Model Run showing a cold Easterly flow

The ECM ensemble mean shows something very similar to the above operational chart, giving support for this outcome.

ECM Mean

If we take a look at the ensembles themselves, we can see the operational run (red line) follows the yellow line (ensemble mean) very closely. This gives increased confidence in a particular forecast and it’s consistency over the last few days has been remarkable.

ECM Ensembles

The UKMO model has now come on board and started to show the developing Easterly flow.

UKMO 144

The ECM & UKMO models are currently performing above all the other models so we can place slightly more confidence than usual in what they’re showing for the time frame. The GFS is finally starting to show some support for another cold spell too with an increasing number of ensembles going down the cold route in the medium to long-range.

GFS ensembles

GFS ensembles

These models are not without their faults of course, so to get a clearer idea on the likely pattern through the course of next week it’s important to take a look at the height anomaly charts. These can often give a better indication and tell us how much faith we can place in the above models.

The NCEP height chart shows higher pressure to the North of the UK and low pressure going South into central Europe, this tends to support the above models.

NCEP height anomaly chart

NCEP height anomaly chart

Conclusion & Forecast

Through the course of next week high pressure is expected to develop to the North of the UK allowing colder air to once again flow across the United Kingdom from the East. There’s still a lot of uncertainty over the final position of weather systems and it’s therefore not yet possible to say how cold it’s going to get or if indeed, they’ll be any snowfall around. Currently the highest snow risk would be along Eastern coastal areas with elsewhere being largely dry, cold and frosty due to high pressure being close by.

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One Comment on “Turning Colder Again Next Week”

  1. snocat Says:

    Im sure your spot on,last night after the storm cleared the moon was on its back. An old saying in the far north is if the moon on his back its holding a storm in his arms.

    Reply

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