Mid-March Cold Spell?

March 3, 2013

Weather Forecasts


The models have been hinting at the potential for another cold spell towards the middle of March and whilst details continue to remain uncertain at this stage, there is growing confidence within the model outputs.

First we’ll take a look at the GFS and ECM ensembles. You can see that there’s a dip in temperatures towards the middle of the month on both of them, so we do have some agreement.

ECM Ensembles

ECM Ensembles

GFS Ensembles

GFS Ensembles

The Height Anomaly Charts are indicating high pressure is developing to the North of the UK sending low pressure systems South, this suggests winds will be coming in from an Easterly direction.

NCEP height anomaly chart

NCEP height anomaly chart

Conclusion and Forecast

Towards the middle of the month high pressure developing to the North of the UK will allow colder air to filter in from the East bringing an increasing risk of snowfall. Exact timing and placement of pressure systems are still uncertain so we wont we able to say who will see snowfall until we get closer to the forecast period.

Note:

We are moving into the Spring months now so updates on this blog will be significantly reduced. The Blog will continue to be updated to monitor this cold spell but as we move into Spring and summer, the blog will only be updated when there is a thunderstorm or extreme heat risk.

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6 Comments on “Mid-March Cold Spell?”

  1. Nick Says:

    Thanks for your updates Daniel,although I love the snow,I muat say I am now looking forward to having the sun on my back.
    Look forward to your forcasts next winter with lots of snow,
    Keep up the good work, many thanks!!

    Reply

  2. mud4fun Says:

    Yes, agree with Nick, I’m now looking forward to warm weather too so I can get on with my vehicle restorations. I’m also looking forward to BBQ’s and sitting in the garden late into the evening. Just about to swap the summer tyres back onto the truck too as I thought we were finished with winter. Not sure what to do now, winter tyres are costing me a fortune in fuel but summer tyres are hopeless in snow and ice. Is this snow risk high? I can cope with the odd inch or so with the summer tyres but not 6″ of the stuff.

    Reply

  3. Eileen McIntosh Says:

    I’ve also found your weather reports informative and easy to follow and unlike other sites have been pretty accurate. I too would have liked a snowier winter, but now we’re into Spring it’s good to see a bit more of the sun even if we don;t quite have the warmth to go with it. We live in hope, here’s to a good summer! Thanks again.

    Reply

  4. Joe Says:

    Thanks for the update. I think we have one last cold spell to come then spring will be upon us!!

    Reply

  5. Jeff Says:

    Thanks Daniel, love receiving your e-mails. It’s quite depressing now that spring is here even more depressing when the clocks go forward. Best wishes!

    Reply

  6. David Says:

    I think you should carry on, you seem to be more accurate than most forcasters that want to charge you for their services, I know you concentrated on the cold weather but why not try and forecast the comming summer weather, for example, Hot spells, Severe Rain events. even so I look forward to your forecasting next winter. Keep up the good work

    Reply

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