The models have been hinting at the potential for another cold spell towards the middle of March and whilst details continue to remain uncertain at this stage, there is growing confidence within the model outputs.

First we’ll take a look at the GFS and ECM ensembles. You can see that there’s a dip in temperatures towards the middle of the month on both of them, so we do have some agreement.

ECM Ensembles
ECM Ensembles
GFS Ensembles
GFS Ensembles

The Height Anomaly Charts are indicating high pressure is developing to the North of the UK sending low pressure systems South, this suggests winds will be coming in from an Easterly direction.

NCEP height anomaly chart
NCEP height anomaly chart

Conclusion and Forecast

Towards the middle of the month high pressure developing to the North of the UK will allow colder air to filter in from the East bringing an increasing risk of snowfall. Exact timing and placement of pressure systems are still uncertain so we wont we able to say who will see snowfall until we get closer to the forecast period.

Note:

We are moving into the Spring months now so updates on this blog will be significantly reduced. The Blog will continue to be updated to monitor this cold spell but as we move into Spring and summer, the blog will only be updated when there is a thunderstorm or extreme heat risk.

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