Beast from the East – Spring Snowfall

March 6, 2013

Weather Forecasts


We’re now officially into Spring but it seems someone hasn’t told the weather. The computer models have been churning out some very cold looking charts and confidence is now growing for a cold and snowy spell of weather as we move into next week, perhaps the snowiest we’ve seen all winter.

The charts, whilst not in complete agreement on the exact placement of weather systems are singing from the same sheet, it will be turning colder as we go into next week and some areas are likely to see some snowfall, pin pointing these areas at this range though isn’t possible.

The GFS and ECM are in somewhat agreement with each other offering up a cold, convective Easterly bringing plenty of snow showers to many areas.

GFS Model

GFS Model

ECM Model

ECM Model

The NAVGEM also agrees with this outlook to a degree, although the snow showers perhaps less widespread on this model.

NAVGEM Model

NAVGEM Model

The UKMO turns things cold, but due to the placement of high pressure many areas would remain dry with only the far South seeing snowfall potential.

UKMO Model

UKMO Model

Forecast:

Given the above, I’d be wary to forecast widespread heavy snowfall at this stage, however as always with an Easterly the highest risk of snowfall will be in the South and East. Disagreements over exact placement of pressure systems is causing some headaches with where the worst of the snowfall is likely to be and that’s something that will need to be monitored in the coming days.

We can be sure that the current milder weather isn’t going to last, though and it’ll feel more like winter than Spring come next week.

The chart below shows the current snow risk thoughts, it’s likely to change in the coming days.

Advanced-Outlook

 

 

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3 Comments on “Beast from the East – Spring Snowfall”

  1. Dave Says:

    And we thought winter was over. Thanks for the heads up Daniel. I’m seeing this forecast from multiple sources now (you were the first to suggest this event!!). 4×4 response UK is now on alert. We are watching this closely now.

    Reply

  2. Joe Says:

    Do you reckon the west coast will get snow this time. Any snow we have had is transitional, snow for 1 hour then rain, or we get the odd light snow shower. It’s not looking good for snow in the west from what you are pointing out.

    Reply

  3. michael haydon Says:

    well, was hoping for spring for next week, because, we purchasing a caravan, to go the Windemere lakes from Blackpool for a couple of days.

    Now again, Im faced with a dilemma, Do I take Metchecks forcast of 5.5cms heavy Snow in Blackpool and Preston Areas for tomorrow morning?, which means I stay In and dont pick up the caravan, or go with BBC , Danial and met office, who have no weather warnings for heavy snow of nearly 6cms in these areas. Who is right and who is wrong here?

    Reply

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