Winter appears to be dragging on this year. I’ve had quite a few people asking me the same question, “When will it turn warmer?” so lets take a look ahead and see whether we can find any sign of Spring.
First we’re going to take a look at the ECM Ensembles to see whether or not these can shine some light on the situation. The chart below shows that there is indeed a slight warming trend being forecasted as we move through the first week of April although the mean temperature line (yellow) never really gets above 10c so whilst it maybe less cold, it certainly wont feel particularly springlike. There’s also a fair amount of scatter within the ensembles so confidence is low.
The NCEP 8-14 Day Height Anomaly chart below continues to suggest high pressure dominating to the North-West of the UK with low pressure tracking further South, this suggests a continuation of cooler Easterly winds with unsettled weather moving into the South and South-West at times.
The Arctic Oscillation is a measurement of pressure across the Arctic. When this is negative we can expect to see high pressure in this region. The chart below shows the forecast is for us to remain in a negative phase for the entire forecast period, albeit easing slightly later in the period.
Spring Watch Conclusion:
Currently there is no clear signal for significantly warmer conditions to push across the UK. If anything we’re going to see a continuation of the cooler weather as we move into April, although the cold may ease slightly as the first week progresses it’s still not going to feel like Spring.
UK Snow Watch
An area of low pressure on Friday will attempt to push into an area of colder air across the UK. There is a chance that we could see an area of snowfall moving up into South-Western and Southern parts of England although current model outputs suggest the snowfall will affect parts of France instead. Due to the uncertainty a low risk 20% probability has been issued for parts of South-West England.