With the Christmas period edging ever closer and into range of the models it’s now possible to give a more detailed overview of expected conditions. Current model guidance suggests Christmas day itself will be dominated by low pressure with winds coming in from the West. This suggests a showery and milder regime rather than anything cold and snowy.
The GFS Ensembles for Christmas day highlight a similar picture showing reasonable support for temperatures to be around or slightly above the seasonal average for Christmas. The yellow box on the chart below shows the forecast for the Christmas period, the purple line is the “snow line”, for snow to fall, we want all of the other lines to be around or below this purple snow line. Unfortunately a large majority of them are well above, suggesting things will be too mild for snow.
Due to this outlook, I have therefore reduced the risk of snow on the snow risk chart below.
Slight upgrade in todays update for Northern and Eastern areas and a slight downgrade for Western areas and Ireland