Monthly Forecasts


This page will be updated twice during the course of each month, once at the beginning and once in the middle to take a look at likely weather patterns for the month ahead. Please remember that long-range forecasting is an experimental science and is subject to inaccuracy further out in the forecast period. Use these forecasts as a guide.Β 

Updated: 23rd March 2013

Forecasts will appear here shortly

30 Comments on “Monthly Forecasts”

  1. Snowmad Says:

    Loving the updates. Starting to look forward to what winter may bring this year. Will you be doing a ski forecast

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Thanks I appreciate that! I probably wont be doing a Ski Forecast this year as it’s not really something I’m too familiar with, I will look into getting something like that up on the site for next year, though!

      Reply

    • funweather23 Says:

      There is apparently going to be extremely strong winter blizzards with predicted snowfall up to 2 ft in scotland and at least half a foot in the UK. The other day it was 0 degrees C in newcastle and its only september

      Reply

  2. Ray Tooley Says:

    Love your style on everything you do and say…keep up the good work,as you’ve got plenty of happy supporters!

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      I appreciate that, I’m glad your finding the forecasts useful πŸ™‚

      Reply

  3. Jeff Says:

    I’m new to this site and can honestly say it’s brilliant! I can’t wait for the winter forecast to arrive, hoping for really cold and snowy weather during the winter of 2012 / 2013.

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Welcome to the site! πŸ™‚

      If you’d like to receive email alerts whenever a new Blog is posted you can do that in the right hand navigation, simply put your email in and hit “sign me up” or alternatively, you can like our Facebook page to see the updates posted straight to your news feed! I hope the forecasts here continue to be of use πŸ™‚

      Reply

  4. Simon Says:

    Snow boarding tennison down on the
    Isle of Wight in 2010/11was awesome !!
    Lets keep fingers crossed for 2012/13.

    Reply

  5. Mala Says:

    You’re only 16 and an absolute joke! This site is absolutely shite, ain’t ya got nothin’ else better to do with ya time?

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Thanks for the comment, just want to clear a couple of things up.

      I’m 21, not 16, easy mistake to make I know, especially when I’m clean shaven. We all have hobbies, the weather happens to be mine and I get enjoyment out of making weather forecasts. Your comment “nothing else better to do with your time” is slightly hypocritical, since you clearly have nothing else to do other than post needless comments like this one on websites.

      Have a good day πŸ™‚

      Reply

  6. Piers Corbyn Says:

    Do yourself a favour DANIEL! I’ve a degree in Astrophysics and can reassure you, that you are totally WRONG in what you do! You are totally DELUDED and spread nothing but LIES! This site should be TERMINATED as you really DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT! Any Forecasts that don’t take into consideration Solar Activity, WILL FAIL!!!

    Piers

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Ah, it seems the trolls have found my website. It’s my understanding that there is a lag effect when it comes down to Solar Activity, if you take a look at my winter forecast page I have indeed included Solar Activity, however it cannot be used, and there is no evidence to suggest it can be, for short term forecasts.

      Unless you can show me evidence to support what you’re saying, I’m afraid your comments are without merit.

      Reply

    • Piers Corbyn (@Piers_Corbyn) Says:

      This comment was not posted by me (Piers Corbyn the real one). It is fiction and posted by a frauster whom I suggest needs help from a doctor. If you want to know what we are saying visit http://www.weatheraction.com ot twitter @Piers_Corbyn Thank you

      Reply

  7. Ray Tooley Says:

    Take no notice,Daniel…just stick to what you’re doing and keep up the good work! I’ve known Piers Corbyn to be rubbished on MORE THAN one occasion,and he’s “professional”!!??

    Reply

    • Piers Corbyn (@Piers_Corbyn) Says:

      Resend without typo:
      Ray, the comment attributed to me was not posted by me (Piers Corbyn the real one). Click on the icon and you see it leads nowhere. It is fiction and posted by a frauster whom I suggest needs help from a doctor. If you want to know what we are saying visit http://www.weatheraction.com or twitter @Piers_Corbyn Thank you

      Reply

  8. Dave Says:

    Forecasting I suggest can only be based on the information at hand at the time and as we know nature will always have the last say. Keep up the good work Daniel. Ignore the odd doubters and enjoy your hobby as most of your followers do. Best wishes for Xmas and the new year.

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Thanks Dave!

      Merry Christmas πŸ™‚

      Reply

  9. paul Says:

    sorry Dan your forcecasting creadability has gone out the window,may as well look at seaweed as read these anymore,How you are a “senior forecaster” on the met-monkey weather forum is beyond me

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Again, maybe we should wait until winters over?

      1. I did not say every single day would be below average

      2. December is currently running below the seasonal average, I stated it’d be below average and it currently is. Milder periods were ALWAYS likely to happen. As stated, I expect them to be relatively short lived. It looks like things are going to turn cold again into the new year if latest signals prove to be correct.

      Keep these informative posts coming!

      Reply

      • paul Says:

        Come on Dan,you are really clutching at straws now,most of the MO forecast models have average/above average temps and rainfall for the remainder of this year and even through to mid Jan?

        Reply

        • Daniel Smith Says:

          Clutching at straws how? You seem to have conveniently ignored the charts I’ve posted to back up what I’ve said here

          Reply

    • Ray Tooley Says:

      You should really pay attention to what Daniel says: so far,nothing of what he has said can be misconstrued as a “forecast”. All along,he has always stated that the signs,signals and models,whatever you will call them,are only giving an INDICATION of what happen…not what WILL DEFINITELY happen! I think he’s too smart for that! And please do remember – the UK has some of the most changeable and unpredictable weather in the WORLD!!! That’s why we’re always talking about it and why sites such as these exist…don’t knock it!

      Reply

  10. Ray Tooley Says:

    And all I can say to that is: I agree 100%

    Reply

  11. neil Says:

    LOL – trolls, get a life!!

    Reply

  12. JBSP Says:

    What’s your view on this supposedly SSW? Are we going to get cold or it’s the beast from the east #2. Would be nice if you could keep updating us in plain English as you always do πŸ™‚

    Reply

  13. sleety Says:

    Sleety lets be honest if we all new for shore what 2013 was going to bring then their would be no need to blog would their? thats what makes conversation in the end———-sleety

    Reply

  14. Luke Storey Says:

    GFS has been showing signs of prolonged cold during every update for the past few days now with T850’s consistently edging past the -10C mark… Let’s just hope it becomes a reality πŸ˜€

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      ECM backs up that outlook with a very cold Operational with ensemble support , T96 is key to this whole setup, once the azores high joins with Greenland it’s game on

      Reply

      • Luke Storey Says:

        Daniel, do weather models take into consideration SSW? Because surely with the latest SSW we’ve seen, the UK should be in for a spell of prolonged cold, but the last few outputs are beginning to favour a more active Jet Stream that will break down the Azores and Greenland High

        Reply

        • Daniel Smith Says:

          SSW unfortunately doesn’t guarantee cold and snowy weather for the UK, it’s a lot more complicated than that sadly

          The models don’t directly take SSW data into account, as far as I know they don’t model the stratosphere but focus mainly on the Troposphere, they may look at the very bottom layer of the Stratosphere though.

          What they do pick up is the Tropospheres reaction to the SSW, so whilst they might not directly take it into account, they do pick it up indirectly

          Reply

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