Long-Range forecasting is incredibly difficult due to how chaotic our weather can be here in the UK. The below should be taken as a guide to the most probable outcome, rather than an in-depth detailed forecast.
Winter is now behind us so many people are now looking forward to some summer warmth. Recent summers have been quite disappointing with a lack of any real prolonged warmth and a fair amount of wet weather. Will this summer buck that trend and offer something many of us are craving for?
Lets take a look at the various long-range computer models that are available to see whether or not we can see a pattern within them, and hopefully get an idea of how summer is likely to pan out.
First, we’ll start by taking a look at the JAMSTEC Indian Long-Range Model June-August.
The above model shows us the temperature prediction for June through until August, for the UK it’s forecasting temperatures to be above average during this period so if you’re looking for warm summary conditions, this chart should please you. Lets take a look at the Precipitation Chart from the same model.
The rainfall prediction for June-August comes out around or slightly above average, this is suggestive of a high pressure dominated summer.
Now lets take a look at the Beijing Climate Center model, again looking at the period June-August. We’ll start off looking at the pressure anomaly chart since that is available on this particular model.
I’ve highlighted the areas of interest to us in red. This model is suggesting higher pressure to be centered to the East/South-East of the United Kingdom, this would suggest warmer than average conditions. Lets take a look at the temperature anomaly chart to see whether this matches up with the pressure anomalies shown above.
Fortunately they do, temperatures on this model are predicted to be close to or above normal which again, combining this model with the JAMSTEC model would currently suggest an above average summer is the most probable outcome. Lets take a look at the rainfall predictions.
Whilst there is no clear signal either way from the Precipitation chart, it looks as if rainfall is predicted to be close to normal.
Lets move on and take a look at the Brazilian Long-Range anomaly model. Again starting with the pressure anomaly chart.
The chart above doesn’t really give a clear indication on pressure patterns around the UK, it does have higher than average pressure to the South of Greenland which is perhaps indicative of a less active Atlantic.
The Brazilian temperature prediction again doesn’t give a concise signal either way and goes for more average temperatures for the June-August period.
Finally we’re going to take a look at the Met-Office Probability models, we’ll start with the temperature chart.
Probability of Above Average Temperatures: 20-40%
Probability of Average Temperatures: 20-40%
Probability of Below Average Temperatures: 20-40%
So once again, no clear signal either way at the moment from the Met-Office Charts.
The next set of charts come courtesy from Net-Weather Extra, due to it being a paid subscription service I’m unable to post too many of these charts so I’ll stick with the temperature models and explain what the other charts show. They are based on the long-range CFS model.
June Temperature Prediction
July Temperature Prediction
August Temperature Prediction
So the above charts are all indicating an above average summer, although perhaps cooler towards the South and East. I can’t post the rainfall models but generally, they show below average rainfall for June, above average rainfall for July and below average rainfall for August.
Conclusion & Forecast:
Taking in all the information from the charts above, current indications are for temperatures to be close to or slightly above the long-term average during the June-August period with rainfall likely to be average or slightly below as high pressure establishes itself close to the United Kingdom.