Summer 2013


Summer 2013

Long-Range forecasting is incredibly difficult due to how chaotic our weather can be here in the UK. The below should be taken as a guide to the most probable outcome, rather than an in-depth detailed forecast.

Winter is now behind us so many people are now looking forward to some summer warmth. Recent summers have been quite disappointing with a lack of any real prolonged warmth and a fair amount of wet weather. Will this summer buck that trend and offer something many of us are craving for?

Lets take a look at the various long-range computer models that are available to see whether or not we can see a pattern within them, and hopefully get an idea of how summer is likely to pan out.

First, we’ll start by taking a look at the JAMSTEC Indian Long-Range Model June-August.

JAMSTEC Model - Temperature Prediction June-August 2013

JAMSTEC Model – Temperature Prediction June-August 2013

The above model shows us the temperature prediction for June through until August, for the UK it’s forecasting temperatures to be above average during this period so if you’re looking for warm summary conditions, this chart should please you. Lets take a look at the Precipitation Chart from the same model.

JAMSTEC Rainfall Prediction June-August

JAMSTEC Rainfall Prediction June-August

The rainfall prediction for June-August comes out around or slightly above average, this is suggestive of a high pressure dominated summer.

Now lets take a look at the Beijing Climate Center model, again looking at the period June-August. We’ll start off looking at the pressure anomaly chart since that is available on this particular model.

Beijing Climate Center Pressure Anomaly Chart June-August

Beijing Climate Center Pressure Anomaly Chart June-August

I’ve highlighted the areas of interest to us in red. This model is suggesting higher pressure to be centered to the East/South-East of the United Kingdom, this would suggest warmer than average conditions. Lets take a look at the temperature anomaly chart to see whether this matches up with the pressure anomalies shown above.

Beijing Climate Center Temperature Prediction

Beijing Climate Center Temperature Prediction

Fortunately they do, temperatures on this model are predicted to be close to or above normal which again, combining this model with the JAMSTEC model would currently suggest an above average summer is the most probable outcome. Lets take a look at the rainfall predictions.

Beijing Climate Center Rainfall Prediction June-August

Beijing Climate Center Rainfall Prediction June-August

Whilst there is no clear signal either way from the Precipitation chart, it looks as if rainfall is predicted to be close to normal.

Lets move on and take a look at the Brazilian Long-Range anomaly model. Again starting with the pressure anomaly chart.

Brazilian Pressure Anomaly Chart June-August

Brazilian Pressure Anomaly Chart June-August

The chart above doesn’t really give a clear indication on pressure patterns around the UK, it does have higher than average pressure to the South of Greenland which is perhaps indicative of a less active Atlantic.

Brazilian Temperature Prediction

Brazilian Temperature Prediction

The Brazilian temperature prediction again doesn’t give a concise signal either way and goes for more average temperatures for the June-August period.

Finally we’re going to take a look at the Met-Office Probability models, we’ll start with the temperature chart.

Met Office Temperature Probability

Met Office Temperature Probability

Probability of Above Average Temperatures: 20-40%

Probability of Average Temperatures: 20-40%

Probability of Below Average Temperatures: 20-40%

So once again, no clear signal either way at the moment from the Met-Office Charts.

The next set of charts come courtesy from Net-Weather Extra, due to it being a paid subscription service I’m unable to post too many of these charts so I’ll stick with the temperature models and explain what the other charts show. They are based on the long-range CFS model.

June Temperature Prediction

Net-Weather Extra June Temperature Prediction

Net-Weather Extra June Temperature Prediction

July Temperature Prediction

July

Net-Weather Extra July Temperature Prediction

August Temperature Prediction

Net-Weather Extra August Temperature Prediction

Net-Weather Extra August Temperature Prediction

So the above charts are all indicating an above average summer, although perhaps cooler towards the South and East. I can’t post the rainfall models but generally, they show below average rainfall for June, above average rainfall for July and below average rainfall for August.

Conclusion & Forecast:

Taking in all the information from the charts above, current indications are for temperatures to be close to or slightly above the long-term average during the June-August period with rainfall likely to be average or slightly below as high pressure establishes itself close to the United Kingdom.

Confidence: 40%

8 Comments on “Summer 2013”

  1. Dj Says:

    Ahhh good news at last 🙂

    Reply

  2. chris Says:

    Nice thought, but it won’t happen.

    Reply

    • Chelley Says:

      Well it sure did 🙂

      Reply

  3. Damian Says:

    I hope this is correct! So many other sites are saying cooler than average, wetter than average. It’s been far too long since we had even a reasonable summer.
    The thing is, where are others getting their data from? If it’s the same data, is it being interpreted differently, and why?

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      At time of writing this forecast models were going for an average to slightly above average summer hence the prediction. Latest model outputs have shifted High Pressure around slightly so we might now be looking at a slightly cooler than average summer. High Pressure looks likely to be dominant to the North of the UK

      Reply

  4. joshua Says:

    your incorrect high pressure means sunny and warm hooray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

  5. Dave Says:

    Ok, so it looks like it’s either raining or it’s going to !!. Not much new there then.

    Reply

  6. Margie Says:

    Well it looks like you was right, we’ve had a lovely summer since the end of June 🙂

    Reply

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