Winter 2012/13


Due to the length of the previous page, I have decided to add the official forecast on a page of its own. To see the previous two winter outlooks to see what I’ve been expecting up until this point, click HERE

Disclaimer

Forecasting months in advance is something that is incredibly difficult to do in particularly so for the UK’s weather because there are so many different variables that affect our weather, the fact that we’re sandwiched between a massive landmass and an ocean only adds to the complexity and chaoticness of our weather. Long Range forecasts should never be taken too seriously and should be used as more of a “guide” to most probable weather, rather than an actual forecast.

If you’d like to skip all the technical details, scroll to the bottom and read the conclusion.

Winter Weather Outlook 2012/13 – Issue 3, Official Forecast

The previous two updates have pointed to a winter consisting of below average temperatures across the UK. Have things changed?

To find out, I’m going to start by once again taking a look at the current snow cover across Scandinavia, Russia and Eurasia. During October we saw a sudden expansion of snowfall across these regions allowing some strong, deeply embedded surface cold to become established. As we go into the winter months this can act as a brick wall against Atlantic weather systems.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Whilst Solar Activity typically cannot be used to forecast short-term, looking at activity over the last couple of years could give us some idea of where we sit in this area and what possible weather this could lead to. There has been increasing amount of research into solar activity and it’s effect on our weather and there is now evidence to suggest low solar activity leads to more blocked European winters.

Solar Activity Cycle

The above chart shows us where we currently stand with solar activity, the forecast and the previous solar cycle. We can see that despite approaching a solar maximum, activity compared to the last cycle is considerably lower. We also saw a period of prolonged low activity during 2008 through until 2010. This suggests to me that a more, blocked European pattern is possible however there are of course many other factors at play here. Current solar images show that there are currently very few sunspots on the solar disk.

Solar Disk

I mentioned the QBO in both the first issue and second issue however things remain the same on this front. We’re in a weakening negative phase and this helps to reduce mean zonal winds across the Arctic helping to reduce the strength and effect the Polar Vortex will have during the winter. We’ve already seen this happening with a relatively weak Polar Vortex compared to what we would usually be seeing at this time of year. For reference, I’ve copied and pasted information about the QBO below to explain exactly what it is.

The Quasi-biennial oscillation or QBO for short is the measurement of the equatorial zonal winds between Westerly and Easterly in the tropical Stratosphere, the alternating phases develop at the top of the stratosphere and propagate downwards over a period of months. Current forecasts suggest going into this winter we’ll be in an Easterly Phase and this basically speaking can lead to a higher risk of Sudden Stratospheric Warming which I’ll go into in just a moment.

Stratospheric Warming is something many people have started to pay close attention to over the last few winters. So much so that even the Met Office have started to use Stratosphere Temperature data in their seasonal model data. Current Stratosphere temperature predictions are very good if you’re looking for a cold and blocked winter as over the last week or so forecasts have been hinting at some Stratospheric Warming which looks likely to lead to a splitting of the Polar Vortex as we move into early December.

100hPa Polar Vortex Chart showing a very weak Vortex

If we take a look at the mean zonal winds, we can see that going into December zonal winds are decreasing which is simply an effect of a weakening or splitting Polar Vortex.

100hPa Polar Vortex Chart showing a very weak Vortex

Blues indicate weaker zonal winds or Easterly winds. Reds are zonal Westerlies and we can see from the chart that these are under attack

Current Stratosphere forecasts suggest an increase in Wave 2 activity as we go into early December, this puts pressure on the Polar Vortex and explains why it’s likely to weaken and split.

Pink colours and positive numbers indicate Wave 2 Activity in the Stratosphere

The chart below confirms that there is currently a fair amount of pressure being put on the Polar Vortex from both above it, and below it.

Cut section of the Polar Stratosphere. Blues depict cold reds and oranges depict warm

Based on the above, and should these forecasts come to fruition then I’d expect the first half of winter (December & January) to consist of periods of blocking conditions across the Arctic which is likely to bring below average temperatures across the United Kingdom during this period.

This leads me on quite nicely to the current ENSO conditions across the Equatorial Pacific. In the last update we were looking at the possibility of weak/neutral conditions and this remains the same.

ENSO Forecast

A weak/Neutral ENSO generally speaking means that other factors will come into play and ENSO conditions will not over ride these so we can’t really get too much of a signal for these conditions.

We’re going to take a look at Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures now. In the previous updates SST anomalies were favouring a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which when combined with a Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) can bring colder conditions to the UK. Below I’ve annotated a chart to explain what we’re currently seeing. This is suggestive of a negative NAO

h

That’s the technical stuff out of the day so why don’t we take a look at some of the seasonal weather forecast models to see what they suggest? We’ll start with the JAMSTEC Model. We’ll take a look at both October’s update and November’s, we’re looking for consistency within the output.

JAMSTEC October Update

JAMSTEC Temperature Chart November Update

The charts above show surface temperatures. The October update was keen to bring in very cold temperatures across Europe and the UK. The November update however brings in milder, above average temperatures across Europe but keeps the UK below average. That’s generally quite a large flip with little consistency away from the UK prediction.

Now we’ll take a look at the ECM Three Month update, unfortunately the ECM keeps much of its data behind close doors so I can only show you the temperature chart. It’s predicting above average temperatures across much of Europe, the UK is also falls under above average but the signal here is less strong. Interestingly the model is forecasting above average temperatures to the North and East of Iceland, perhaps indicative of some sort of blocking feature.

ECM Three Month Forecast

Moving on we’re going to take a look at the Russian Model. This model no longer covers December so the period we’ll be looking at here will be January through until March.

In the first issue, this model was predicting near normal/above average temperatures for the UK. In the second issue it had changed to below average temperatures and that’s a theme it’s stuck with in the latest update.

Russian Model Temperature Forecast

The precipitation charts are quite interesting too as they suggest below average rainfall across the UK and to our North, but above average rainfall to the South. This is indicative of a Southerly tracking Jet Stream and blocking to our North.

Russian Precipitation Forecast

Next we’re going to take a look at the Met Office Probability chart. This one can be a little difficult to understand so I’ll write out exactly what the model is showing.

Chance of Above Average:  0-40%

Chance of Average: 20-40%

Chance of Below Average: 40-60%

Met Office Temperature Probability

The signal for below average temperatures across the UK this winter is clearly there on the Met Office chart, although the signal perhaps not quite as strong as some of the previous updates suggested.

The chart below shows the ensemble mean sea level pressure for this winter. Despite the above signal for below average temperatures the signal from this chart suggests quite a mild, zonal winter with low pressure to our North and high pressure to the South. Clearly there’s a little bit of confusion over this as there are conflicting signals within the same model output.

Met Office Ensemble Mean Pressure

Moving on, we’re going to take a look at the Beijing Climate Center seasonal model. The below chart shows temperature anomaly predictions.

Beijing climate center temperature chart

The above chart doesn’t really give a strong signal either way and is more suggestive of temperatures being around, or slightly above the seasonal average. Interestingly though if we look to our North and West across the Atlantic and up into Greenland, temperatures are forecasted to be above average. Again perhaps an indication of some kind of blocking feature.

Indeed, the height chart from the Beijing Climate Center mirrors the above, high pressure very much over the Arctic with low pressure tracking South of the UK.

Beijing Climate Center Height Chart

Conclusion and Forecast 

There are three important key factors that I believe will play into how this winter shapes up/

  • State of the Polar Stratosphere
  • Sudden expansion of snowfall across Scandinavia, Russia and Europe
  • Negative QBO Phase

Given the above, I’d be more inclined to suggest a below average winter with the coldest weather focussed during the first half of the winter. Through the first part of December I think we’ll see a mixture of colder weather interspersed with very brief milder periods before colder air really begins to establish itself leading to a below average December.

January I’m expecting further Stratospheric attacks on the Polar Vortex keeping it weakened and displaced, this again leads me to believe we’re going to see a below average January.

Confidence of course drops away towards the second half of the winter though I’d expect to see colder conditions beginning to weaken with more of an Atlantic influence effecting our weather perhaps bringing longer milder periods of weather.

  • December & January - below average with milder periods being generally short-lived
  • February – Around average with milder periods being more prolonged under the influence of the Atlantic.

Forecasting specifics such as snowfall simply isn’t possible this far out, however below average does of course heighten the risk of snowfalls across the UK. For specific details over which areas will see snow, please keep an eye on the front page and Snow Watch Page, when snow is in the forecast, I’ll be talking about it.

 

36 Comments on “Winter 2012/13”

  1. lisa lawley Says:

    Fantastically done Dan. Very interesting and in depth. Top notch.

    Reply

    • Dennis Says:

      Wrong..today we here in Sunderland are wearing our short sleeved shirts ..my car thermometer is showing 11.3c in the sunshine ..not exactly winter eh..forget all this crap and watch nature..the birds in my garden through feeding habits told me of mild conditions second half of December.

      Reply

      • Daniel Smith Says:

        Wrong?

        I don’t believe I stated every single day of the winter would be cold!

        Reply

        • Dennis Says:

          Well what my garden birds have told me up to now is spot on, their feeding habits have not been aggressive as previous bad winters, we have also had birds that in bad winters have not travelled this far north. nature does its own thing and predicting weather beyond 3weeks is almost impossible, nice try though.maybe better yo try a crystal ball next time.

          Reply

        • Dennis Says:

          Then wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong–haway man perhaps a wet winter but very mild almost every day.

          Reply

  2. KTtom Says:

    Thanks Daniel, great read. I’d love to know what type of sypnoitics the met expect given the greatest confidence of below average being to the far west?

    Reply

  3. Jack Says:

    Conclusion…You copied James Madden

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Not quite, I’ve included a whole range of other factors and haven’t once based the forecast on the Gulf Stream ;)

      Reply

      • stevester8308 Says:

        So it would seem that trolls are on every website now lol . Thanks for the forecast but it would be safe to say the exact opposite of what ever James Maden says because then you know you will have got the weather forecast right .

        Reply

    • stevester8308 Says:

      To get a correct and accurate weather forecast all he had to do was report the exact opposite of what James Maden forecast .

      Reply

  4. mike Says:

    well from what i can see is the norm,not sure what will happen,im a snow fanatic like most people,so i see this a bit dissapointing,nevereless i will remain hopefull,and keep a watch on this site and metox.

    Reply

  5. Marketal Says:

    This is good – I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but as my work involves Forestry assessments and December/January are my busy months I may invest in a new Jacket…

    On another note, is there any evidence we’re going to have a dry summer 2013? Or am I jumping the gun?

    Reply

  6. Jeff Says:

    I love your forecasts. I always look forward to all your e-mails.

    Reply

    • Dennis Says:

      Crap

      Reply

  7. Jeff Egan Says:

    I think its fair to say that all that melt water from the pole must cool the north Atlantic and so shift the gulf stream westward. Could this prevent the normal Atlantic warming of the westerly air flow over the uk?. If so, as we are at roughly the same latitude as leningrad, could we expect an influence from that regeion?

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      This has more to do with a blocking area of high pressure diverting the Westerly winds Southwards and giving us more of a continental airflow rather than anything to do with the gulf stream.

      Reply

  8. Roman linley Says:

    Just read on metcheck weather up to the 21st December looks like the temp is going to be a high of 8 with rain at times in West Sussex
    So all my hopes of a white Christmas has gone 😁☔
    There giving a 20% chance of snow in the south east and only a 25% chance up north
    And the beast from the east looks more like being pushed back by rain from the west
    What’s your thought Daniel ?

    Reply

  9. Nick Smith Says:

    We will get hit and when we do it will be dramatic as there is so much uncertainty in what the long range models are forecasting. Maybe a day’s notice but it will be rememberable. I remember Boxing day in 1962 and what followed on. A benign start to the winter (foggy, cold and dry in most parts) and then all hell let loose over the UK. 3 months of snow, below freezing temperatures and rivers and seas freezing over. The Maunder Minimum is slowly but surely creeping up on us. I wouldn’t bet against a White Christmas…

    Reply

  10. Chumba Says:

    Snow in December over large parts of the uk – nope. Probably get some as per usual in jan/feb.

    I think the norm will be cold snaps but mostly mild with rain and high winds for winters with hsnowy interludes but nothing like a couple of years ago. Summers will be damp squibs with dotted 30 degree ears here and there. Sorry To be boring.

    Reply

  11. Roman linley Says:

    I have to say here in West Sussex this morning looks stunning very hard frost the trees look amazing . I’d be happy to see it like this on Christmas morning
    But don’t think it’s going to be like this more like rain ☔🎅

    Reply

  12. mike Says:

    Chumba!! your bang on,sadly this winter will be a normal one.

    Reply

  13. Roman linley Says:

    I’ve just read metcheck and there saying snow here in West Sussex on New Year’s Day

    Reply

  14. stuart Says:

    when will the ireland weather page be ready

    Reply

    • stuart Says:

      daniel can you say when the ireland weather page will be ready?????

      Reply

  15. David Makin Says:

    I am not disappointed that your are at this time not quite there with your forecast, long range is very difficult especially for the UK. I would be interested to know when and if you think the Jet Steam will move to at least give us a respite from this torrential rain! Also do you see any snow for us over the next 2 months.

    Dave Makin

    Reply

    • fred west Says:

      “At this time not quite right”,poor old Daniel has hardly ever been right,give up now before you lose all credibility as a forceaster

      Reply

      • Daniel Smith Says:

        I’m not entirely sure what your problem is – If you don’t like my forecasts why are you on here reading them/commenting? I stated throughout the entire forecast how much uncertainties there are with long range forecasting and said that they shouldn’t be taken too seriously and to be taken as more of a guide.

        Reply

        • stuart Says:

          where`s the ireland weather page you were working on??????

          Reply

  16. Rochelle Says:

    Heya i am for the first time here. I came
    across this board and I find It truly useful & it helped me
    out much. I hope to give something back and aid others like you
    aided me.

    Reply

  17. Sasha Says:

    Very well presented, however that ‘fleeting’ mild weather has caused UK-wide flooding and not much cold weather over Christmas!
    I hope your forecast of January is more accurate and we get to see a real winter!

    Reply

  18. Brendan Says:

    As you correctly point out at the beginning, Long Range Forecasts should never be taken seriously. The current level of our knowledge and technology determines that we cannot forecast beyond a week with any degree of accuracy, and even that’s pushing it. The trouble is that many people do take these postings seriously and that’s why faux scientific essays such as the above can cause confusion and concern among those who read them and why the media produce screaming headlines about the UK facing an arctic winter. By selectively chosing your indicators you can point towards almost anything, and that is what this site is doing. For example, the direction, position and strength of the jet stream over the North Atlantic is often influenced by atmospheric factors over the the North Pacific and North America, but that is not mentioned above. As things stand at the moment the jet stream over the North Atlantic has been the dominant factor in producing our weather and has been responsible for pushing mild sub tropical air north throughout December and producing the surface depressions which have deluged much of the UK, but this barely rates a mention. There has been no blocking pattern over the UK. The North Atlantic jet has been dominating our weather for months, but barely rates a mention. Will this continue to be the case? There are currently no strong indications to the contrary, but in truth – who knows?

    Reply

    • Mark Golding Says:

      Yep, the conveyor belt from the tropics is indeed strong at the moment. The long range weather for December/Jan has indeed turned out to be an M Fish damp squib – pardon the pun at poor old Mike’s expense..

      Reply

  19. stuart Says:

    any sign of the ireland weather page or is it not happening ???????

    Reply

  20. silverstream100 Says:

    I needed to know if there were any UK floods on 2nd and 3rd of February 2013 for my Geography homework! But you didnt write anything like that! But if you did, then sorry…

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      I can’t recall there being any flooding, though there may have been some in Wales/South-West England

      Reply

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