Ensembles Model Flip

Todays computer models are out and boy has there been a big switch around. To give you an idea of just how quickly these models can turn around, I’ve updated yesterdays and todays Ensemble charts so you can compare them and see for yourself. I’ve drawn a thick red line straight across the chart (the bottom red line) to show where the -5c line is. For snowfall, ideally we want as many of the lines below that line.

Yesterdays

Today

You can see for yourself just how much of a difference there is between the two charts, with todays forecast Ensembles going for colder conditions to prevail until Christmas. With the Ensembles chopping and changing so much in such a short period of time, it’s very hard to have any confidence within them, however considering other, separate forecast models are also forecasting the cold weather to return from Thursday onwards, there is growing confidence.

The models show something called the Polar Vortex pushing South across Western Europe and over the UK, the Polar Vortex usually sits across the Arctic but a building area of High Pressure has displaced it, so it’s looking increasingly likely that we’ll see a return to the very cold conditions, and some areas will see further significant snowfall as we move through the weekend and next week.